Stock Market Outlook for February 25, 2025
The equity market is weakening and it is entirely normal for this time of year.
*** Stocks highlighted are for information purposes only and should not be considered as advice to purchase or to sell mentioned securities. As always, the use of technical and fundamental analysis is encouraged in order to fine tune entry and exit points to average seasonal trends.
Stocks Entering Period of Seasonal Strength Today:
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United States Lime & Minerals, Inc. (NASD:USLM) Seasonal Chart
Agnico Eagle Mines Ltd. (NYSE:AEM) Seasonal Chart
Vanguard Communication Services ETF (NYSE:VOX) Seasonal Chart
The Markets
Stocks struggled to get off the floor on Monday as ongoing uncertainty pertaining to tariffs and macro-economic concerns weighed heavily on investor mindset. The S&P 500 Index closed lower by half of one percent, remaining below the 6100 hurdle that acted as a cap to upside momentum over the past couple of months. The benchmark broke support at the 50-day moving average (6008) for the first time since the first half of January, reflecting the apparent loss of excitement to buy around present heights. Momentum indicators have negatively diverged from price since the middle of last year, highlighting the waning enthusiasm investors had been expressing towards tech-heavy (Mag-7) benchmarks, like this, amidst extreme valuations. A renewed MACD sell signal was triggered on Friday as the momentum indicator crossed below its signal line. Downside risks on a pullback over the near-term are back to the July/August 2024 highs around 5700, a move that would amount to a 7% pullback from recent heights. This would be a healthy and ordinary correction within a bull market by any measure. We continue to monitor the potential impact of the apparent rotation in the market on our list of candidates in the market to Accumulate and to Avoid and we have adopted more of a neutral stance as segments that were previously noted as Accumulate candidates fall off (eg. Technology) and as areas to Avoid are added.
Want to know which areas of the market to buy or sell? Our Weekly Chart Books have just been updated, providing a clear Accumulate, Avoid, or Neutral rating for currencies, cryptocurrencies, commodities, broad markets, and subsectors/industries of the market. Subscribers can login and click on the relevant links to access.
- Currencies
- Cryptocurrencies
- Commodities
- Major Benchmarks
- Sub-sectors / Industries
- ETFs: Bonds | Commodities | Equity Markets | Industries | Sectors
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Today, in our Market Outlook to subscribers, we discuss the following:
- Weekly chart books update, along with our list of all segments of the market to either Accumulate or Avoid
- Other Notes
Subscribers can look for this report in their inbox or by clicking on the following link and logging in: Market Outlook for February 25
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Sentiment on Monday, as gauged by the put-call ratio, ended neutral at 0.99.
Seasonal charts of companies reporting earnings today:
S&P 500 Index
TSE Composite
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