Stock Market Outlook for May 8, 2025
How to play this transition period into the off-season for stocks.
*** Stocks highlighted are for information purposes only and should not be considered as advice to purchase or to sell mentioned securities. As always, the use of technical and fundamental analysis is encouraged in order to fine tune entry and exit points to average seasonal trends.
Stocks Entering Period of Seasonal Strength Today:
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Fidelity MSCI Health Care Index ETF (AMEX:FHLC) Seasonal Chart
Decade Resources Ltd. (TSXV:DEC.V) Seasonal Chart
TOMI Environmental Solutions, Inc. (NASD:TOMZ) Seasonal Chart
Vanguard Long-Term Government Bond ETF (NASD:VGLT) Seasonal Chart
iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF (NASD:TLT) Seasonal Chart
iShares S&P 500 Growth ETF (NYSE:IVW) Seasonal Chart
iShares U.S. Pharmaceuticals ETF (NYSE:IHE) Seasonal Chart
Factset Research Sys, Inc. (NYSE:FDS) Seasonal Chart
VanEck Vectors Biotech ETF (NASD:BBH) Seasonal Chart
Qualys, Inc. (NASD:QLYS) Seasonal Chart
Iqvia Holdings, Inc. (NYSE:IQV) Seasonal Chart
Kratos Defense & Security Solutions, Inc. (NASD:KTOS) Seasonal Chart
Geron Corp. (NASD:GERN) Seasonal Chart
Neogen Corp. (NASD:NEOG) Seasonal Chart
CTS Corp. (NYSE:CTS) Seasonal Chart
American States Water Co. (NYSE:AWR) Seasonal Chart
Bio-Rad Laboratories, Inc. (NYSE:BIO) Seasonal Chart
Eversource Energy (NYSE:ES) Seasonal Chart
Accenture Ltd. (NYSE:ACN) Seasonal Chart
Telephone & Data Systems Inc. (NYSE:TDS) Seasonal Chart
The Markets
Stocks wobbled around the flat-line on Wednesday as traders digested developments pertaining to trade, as well as monitored the announcement from the FOMC following their two-day meeting. The S&P 500 Index added just over four-tenths of one percent, continuing to react to a point of horizontal resistance at 5650. The 200-day moving average remains overhead, putting every technical trader on watch for potential reaction to the variable hurdle. There remains an implied cap over this market in the range between 5500 and 5800, corresponding with the span of the cloud of major moving averages that was broken in March, that would likely require a catalyst to break (eg. progress towards a trade deal with China); without one, look for the sellers to step in around this zone. We were enticed to use the strength through the end of last week to start legging out of equity allocations heading into the offseason for stocks that begins at this time of year as we brace for the next evolution of the intermediate-term trend in the equity market that is still leaning negative. We continue to monitor the potential impact of the rotation in the market on our list of candidates in the market to Accumulate and to Avoid, but we have found rotation/buying candidates in recent weeks amidst this market tumult.
Today, in our Market Outlook to subscribers, we discuss the following:
- The start of the optimal holding period for Long-Term Treasury Bonds
- Depressed Oil prices and producers not liking it
- Gasoline demand
- The derailment in the price of Oil from the seasonal norm
- Industries that are ideal plays into this transition period for stocks
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Sentiment on Wednesday, as gauged by the put-call ratio, ended bullish at 0.80.
Seasonal charts of companies reporting earnings today:
S&P 500 Index
TSE Composite
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