Stock Market Outlook for September 18, 2026
The period of volatility for stocks is upon us, but the flat quarter-to-date performance of stocks suggest that we may not need to fear this period as has historically been necessary.
*** Stocks highlighted are for information purposes only and should not be considered as advice to purchase or to sell mentioned securities. As always, the use of technical and fundamental analysis is encouraged in order to fine tune entry and exit points to average seasonal trends.
Stocks Entering Period of Seasonal Strength Today:
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Stock Highlight: |
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Cambria Shareholder Yield ETF (AMEX:SYLD) Seasonal Chart |
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Automatic Data Processing, Inc. (NASD:ADP) Seasonal Chart
Disclaimer: Comments and opinions offered in this report are for information only. They should not be considered as advice to purchase or to sell mentioned securities. Data offered is believed to be accurate, but is not guaranteed.
The Markets
Stocks reversed recent declines to trade higher on Thursday as investors re-thought their reaction to the FOMC event on Wednesday. The S&P 500 Index rallied by 1.14%, flipping back above previous resistance and implied support at 7620. An ultra-short-term trend of lower-highs and lower-lows persists, but the gyration over the past couple of sessions hints of an exhaustive low that threatens to break this negative slope in the days ahead. The 50-day moving average (~7615) has been retaken as the 100-day moving average (7516) draws in the buyers to keep the intermediate-term trajectory of the market afloat. Historically, the most volatile period for equity performance in the year starts next week, therefore heightened caution has become appropriate, but the way we desire to position for this negative timeframe may not follow the typical seasonal script (more on that below). In the Seasonal Advantage Portfolio that we manage for clients at CastleMoore, we continue to hold an elevated exposure to stocks, aligning with the optimism that the manufacturing economy is expressing, but our patience is growing thin and we will adjust should the persistency of headwinds against stocks (outside of energy) endure. Subscribers can view what we are targeting in our list of market segments to either Accumulate or Avoid.
Today, in our Market Outlook to subscribers, we discuss the following:
- Average market performance through the period of volatility for stocks
- Dark Index
- Portfolio strategy for the period of volatility
- Canadian banks
- US Housing Starts and the stocks of the homebuilders
- Manufacturer sentiment
- Weekly Jobless Claims and the health of the labor market
- Additional Thoughts
Subscribers can look for this report in their inbox or by clicking on the following link and logging in: Market Outlook for September 18
Sentiment on Thursday, as gauged by the put-call ratio, ended bullish at 0.90.
Seasonal charts of companies reporting earnings today:
- No significant earnings for today.
S&P 500 Index
TSE Composite
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