Equity Clock

Stock Market Outlook for April 16, 2026

Major rotation underway from Value to Growth.

*** Stocks highlighted are for information purposes only and should not be considered as advice to purchase or to sell mentioned securities. As always, the use of technical and fundamental analysis is encouraged in order to fine tune entry and exit points to average seasonal trends.

Stocks Entering Period of Seasonal Strength Today:

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Stock Highlight:

Invesco S&P 500 GARP ETF (AMEX:SPGP) Seasonal Chart

Optimal holding period from April 16th to July 26th Growth stocks come into seasonal favour around the end of April / beginning of May, but with valuations in the market becoming elevated again following the recent recovery in stocks, pursuing “Growth at a Reasonable Price” (GARP) has appeal The fund/index is composed of approximately 75 securities in the S&P 500 Index that have been identified as having the highest “growth scores” and “quality and value composite scores,”

TransUnion.com (NYSE:TRU) Seasonal Chart

Eaton Vance Enhanced Equity Income Fund (NYSE:EOI) Seasonal Chart

Jewett-Cameron Trading Co. (NASD:JCTC) Seasonal Chart

AST SpaceMobile, Inc. (NASD:ASTS) Seasonal Chart

Newtek Capital, Inc. (NASD:NEWT) Seasonal Chart

Crocs, Inc. (NASD:CROX) Seasonal Chart

Disclaimer: Comments and opinions offered in this report are for information only. They should not be considered as advice to purchase or to sell mentioned securities. Data offered is believed to be accurate, but is not guaranteed.

The Markets

Stocks remained unrelenting in their climb with the major market benchmarks in the US (S&P 500, Nasdaq) back into record high territory.  The S&P 500 Index closed up by eight-tenths of one percent, exceeding the previous peak that was charted in January around 7,000.  A number of gaps remain unfilled below, including the big one between 6620 and 6740, but, ultimately, the character of the market has changed where levels of resistance hold less weight than levels of support.  A small upside gap opened on Tuesday between 6885 and 6905 is the first zone to watch for reaction as potential support on a retracement/digestion of recent gains. Momentum indicators continue to rise and there is no actionable evidence that the recovery from the March low has matured. In the Seasonal Advantage Portfolio (which is strongly higher YTD and exceeding its high watermark that was charted in February) that we manage for clients at CastleMoore, we continue to be fully exposed to risk (stocks) after flipping from our low volatility stance around the end of March and our performance is benefitting.  The conflict in Iran remains a wildcard and we are running down our cues that would warrant a more defensive posture in risk assets.  Subscribers can view the updated list of themes in our chart books to either Accumulate or Avoid that we continue to gear portfolios towards.

Today, in our Market Outlook to subscribers, we discuss the following:

• Market Trend & Technicals
• Major Rotation Underway (Value → Growth)
• Increasing Signs of a Pause Ahead
• Commodities Shift: Gold no longer shining
• Energy Outlook: The impact of the supply bottleneck starting to be realized in domestic fundamentals
• Economic Backdrop: Canada Manufacturing Sales
• Leadership Fatigue (Short-Term)
• Sentiment Risk (Complacency Rising)
• Big Picture Takeaway

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Sentiment on Wednesday, as gauged by the put-call ratio, ended bullish at 0.75. 

Seasonal charts of companies reporting earnings today:

S&P 500 Index

TSE Composite

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