Stock Market Outlook for July 30, 2026
The trajectories of yields and the US dollar becoming favourable for Gold.
*** Stocks highlighted are for information purposes only and should not be considered as advice to purchase or to sell mentioned securities. As always, the use of technical and fundamental analysis is encouraged in order to fine tune entry and exit points to average seasonal trends.
Stocks Entering Period of Seasonal Strength Today:
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Humana, Inc. (NYSE:HUM) Seasonal Chart
Power Corp. Of Canada (TSE:POW.TO) Seasonal Chart
Disclaimer: Comments and opinions offered in this report are for information only. They should not be considered as advice to purchase or to sell mentioned securities. Data offered is believed to be accurate, but is not guaranteed.
The Markets
A negative reaction to Kevin Warsh’s FOMC press conference amidst lack of clarity over how the committee will achieve their 2% inflation target sent stocks lower on Wednesday. The S&P 500 Index fell by 1.52%, falling back below the short-term trading range between 7425 and 7550 and quickly reaching toward the proposed downside target from the breakdown around 7300. An ultra-short-term trend of lower-lows and lower-highs has been apparent since the end of the summer rally period on July 17th. The benchmark now needs to mend and repair. A zone of significant support comes in to play between 7240 and 7300, representing the lows that were charted in June. Below this span, a more substantial retracemnt of the April/May gains will trigger. Support on the daily chart was broken last week around 20 and 50-day moving averages (~7468), which have converged on one another in a bearish manner. Daily momentum indicators have rolled over in recent days with MACD triggering a fresh sell signal, now aligning with the end of the summer rally period that came to an end on July 17th. In the Seasonal Advantage Portfolio that we manage for clients at CastleMoore, we have not made any changes in our allocations, yet. Following a first half performance in the Seasonal Advantage Portfolio that was well ahead of our own benchmark (as well as all major equity benchmarks in the market), we still have a bias to expect strength for the start of the second half of the year, aligning with the optimism that the manufacturing economy is expressing, but we are scrutinizing the risks that have abruptly escalated with the increase in geopolitical tensions. We continue to view earnings season as providing some cover to the headline threats. Subscribers can view what we are targeting in our list of market segments to either Accumulate or Avoid.
Today, in our Market Outlook to subscribers, we discuss the following:
- Short-term yields slipping below their 20-day moving average, while long-term yields bounce from the variable hurdle
- Upside exhaustion in the US Dollar Index
- Gold
- The bifurcation in the trends of Home Prices across the US
- The trends of consumer and business loans
- Visa Spending Momentum
- Various Consumer Discretionary sector industries showing improving technical trajectories
- Consumer Staples over Consumer Discretionary
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Sentiment on Wednesday, as gauged by the put-call ratio, ended around Neutral at 0.98.
Seasonal charts of companies reporting earnings today:
S&P 500 Index
TSE Composite
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