Stock Market Outlook for September 10, 2026
Two segments of the market that have flourished through their period of seasonal strength may be ripe for profit-taking amidst a degradation in macro fundamentals.
*** Stocks highlighted are for information purposes only and should not be considered as advice to purchase or to sell mentioned securities. As always, the use of technical and fundamental analysis is encouraged in order to fine tune entry and exit points to average seasonal trends.
Stocks Entering Period of Seasonal Strength Today:
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Franklin Resources, Inc. (NYSE:BEN) Seasonal Chart
First Busey Corp. (NASD:BUSE) Seasonal Chart
iShares MSCI Israel Capped ETF (NYSE:EIS) Seasonal Chart
Disclaimer: Comments and opinions offered in this report are for information only. They should not be considered as advice to purchase or to sell mentioned securities. Data offered is believed to be accurate, but is not guaranteed.
The Markets
Ongoing gains in the price of energy commodities and further strength in the cost of borrowing continued to weigh on stocks during the Wednesday session. The S&P 500 Index ended down by around half of one percent, testing previous resistance as support at 7620 at the lows of the session. A short-term bull-flag pattern remains intact, suggesting further upside to be expected, but we are back to some pivotal levels that are becoming tougher to hold as strains in the economy grow (eg. rising oil prices, elevated cost of borrowing). The benchmark is reaching back to the 50-day moving average (~7600), which is another important line in the sand to keep the short-to-intermediate-term trend of the market on a positive slope. Historically, the most volatile period for equity performance in the year is just days away, therefore heightened caution is becoming appropriate. In the Seasonal Advantage Portfolio that we manage for clients at CastleMoore, we continue to hold an elevated exposure to stocks, aligning with the optimism that the manufacturing economy is expressing, but our patience is growing thin and we may need to adjust should the persistency of headwinds against stocks (outside of energy) endure. Subscribers can view what we are targeting in our list of market segments to either Accumulate or Avoid.
Today, in our Market Outlook to subscribers, we discuss the following:
- The rising price of oil and the target for the energy commodity
- Relative performance of Consumer Discretionary back to the lowest levels in over a decade
- Transportation stocks
- The vulnerabilities in Software and Health Care stocks
Subscribers can look for this report in their inbox or by clicking on the following link and logging in: Market Outlook for September 10
Sentiment on Wednesday, as gauged by the put-call ratio, ended bullish at 0.82.
Seasonal charts of companies reporting earnings today:
S&P 500 Index
TSE Composite
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