Stock Market Outlook for March 23, 2026
Market Weakness Deepens, But Conditions Align for a Short-Term Rebound
*** Stocks highlighted are for information purposes only and should not be considered as advice to purchase or to sell mentioned securities. As always, the use of technical and fundamental analysis is encouraged in order to fine tune entry and exit points to average seasonal trends.
Stocks Entering Period of Seasonal Strength Today:
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Calfrac Well Services Ltd. (TSE:CFW.TO) Seasonal Chart
SandRidge Energy, Inc. (NYSE:SD) Seasonal Chart
Dexterra Group Inc. (TSE:DXT.TO) Seasonal Chart
First Trust Natural Gas ETF (NYSE:FCG) Seasonal Chart
Select Water Solutions, Inc. (NYSE:WTTR) Seasonal Chart
Ship Finance Intl Ltd. (NYSE:SFL) Seasonal Chart
Magna International Inc. (NYSE:MGA) Seasonal Chart
Westshore Terminals Investment Corp. (TSE:WTE.TO) Seasonal Chart
PPL Corp. (NYSE:PPL) Seasonal Chart
Precision Drilling Corp. (NYSE:PDS) Seasonal Chart
Labcorp Holdings Inc. (NYSE:LH) Seasonal Chart
Disclaimer: Comments and opinions offered in this report are for information only. They should not be considered as advice to purchase or to sell mentioned securities. Data offered is believed to be accurate, but is not guaranteed.
The Markets
Losses accelerated into the end of the week as portfolios managers jockeyed for position ahead of options expiration while continuing to monitor developments pertaining to the war in Iran. The S&P 500 Index closed down by 1.51%, moving below the 200-day moving average that was cracked in the session prior. Thursday’s downside gap between 6600 and 6625 has proven to add an additional zone of resistance, keeping the benchmark in this phase where levels of resistance are more meaningful than levels of support. At the lows of Friday’s session, the benchmark tested the lower limit of its declining trend channel that it has been in month-to-date and the band between 6500 and 6600 that we have speculated as likely to provide support is being threatened. Oversold readings are triggering for the first time since the Liberation Day lows with the Relative Strength Index (RSI) slipping below 30; the probability of downside exhaustion in the near-term is quite good. In the Seasonal Advantage Portfolio that we manage for clients at CastleMoore, we have been looking for our spot to ramp up risk exposure again and some of the cues that we were seeking enticed us to add to risk exposure for the seasonally strong window that runs through the next four to six weeks. The conflict in Iran remains a wildcard, but we do not have the indications that would be required to suggest abandoning our seasonal mandate calling for strength in stocks at least into early April; beyond this period, we certainly have concerns. Subscribers can view the themes in our chart books to either Accumulate or Avoid that are working and intact.
Today, in our Market Outlook to subscribers, we discuss the following:
- Market Breakdown: Support Cracks, Pressure Builds
- Oversold Conditions: Bounce Likely Near-Term
- Bigger Picture: Transition to Intermediate Correction Risk
- Oil: Key Pressure Point Starting to Ease
- Macro Signals: Mixed (Not Fully Supportive Yet)
- Economy: Tale of Two Cities
- Consumer Stress Signals Rising
- Sector Positioning
- Factor Shift: Quality is Starting to Outperform
- Portfolio Strategy
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Sentiment on Friday, as gauged by the put-call ratio, ended Neutral at 1.00.
Seasonal charts of companies reporting earnings today:
S&P 500 Index
TSE Composite
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