Equity Clock

Stock Market Outlook for June 18, 2026

Reaction to the Fed meeting reinforces the risks to equity markets this summer.

*** Stocks highlighted are for information purposes only and should not be considered as advice to purchase or to sell mentioned securities. As always, the use of technical and fundamental analysis is encouraged in order to fine tune entry and exit points to average seasonal trends.

Stocks Entering Period of Seasonal Strength Today:

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Stock Highlight:
Kimco Realty Corp. (NYSE:KIM) Seasonal Chart	Optimal holding period from June 18th to September 6th The stock has been developing a positive intermediate-term (multi-month trend following its recent breakout above horizontal resistance around $24. Performance relative to the market is hooking higher following years of underperformance Revenue, Free Cash Flow, and Net Imcome for this REIT company is steadily rising year-over-year

Motorcar Parts of America Inc. (NASD:MPAA) Seasonal Chart

Annaly Capital Management, Inc. (NYSE:NLY) Seasonal Chart

Healthpeak Properties Inc (NYSE:DOC) Seasonal Chart

Vizsla Silver Corp. (TSE:VZLA.TO) Seasonal Chart

Disclaimer: Comments and opinions offered in this report are for information only. They should not be considered as advice to purchase or to sell mentioned securities. Data offered is believed to be accurate, but is not guaranteed.

The Markets

Stocks fell sharply on Wednesday, giving back early week gains, as interest rates and the US Dollar spiked following the first FOMC meeting with the new fed chair (Kevin Warsh) at the helm.   The S&P 500 Index dropped by 1.21%, closing Monday’s upside gap and falling back below its 20-day moving average.  The ultra-short-term trend of the benchmark still shows lower-lows and lower-highs for the month of June, a notoriously mean reverting month that tends to result in a digestion of early year gains.  Intermediate-term support at the 50-day moving average at 7301 has, so far, stood in the way of a more detrimental digestion of early year strength, coinciding with end of quarter rebalancing, but the appearance of a lower short-term high below the early June peak places our downside risk target of 7000 (previous horizontal resistance) back on the table. In the Seasonal Advantage Portfolio that we manage for clients at CastleMoore, we remain positioned for this more volatile/risk-off market framework and we chose not to react to the positivity that the market had shown early in the week that was pushing back against our thesis of how the market was to perform in this last month of the quarter (eg. digestion of early year gains). The state of the energy market and corresponding impact on the cost of borrowing/value of the dollar remain key risks to the market, something that was re-emphasized during the Wednesday session.  Subscribers can view the themes in our chart books to either Accumulate or Avoid that we continue to gear portfolios towards.

Today, in our Market Outlook to subscribers, we discuss the following:

• Reaction to the Fed event
• Gold and Gold Mining Stocks
• The seasonal rise the the VIX
• Cryptocurrency market turning lower from resistance
• US Retail Sales
• Rising retailer and wholesaler inventories
• Consumer Discretionary Sector
• Hotel stocks

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Sentiment on Wednesday, as gauged by the put-call ratio, ended bullish at 0.89.

Seasonal charts of companies reporting earnings today:

S&P 500 Index

TSE Composite

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