Technology short-term trend remains negative, but we have our sights on the intermediate-term trajectory, which is overwhelmingly positive.

Stock Market Outlook for July 31, 2026

Technology short-term trend remains negative, but we have our sights on the intermediate-term trajectory, which is overwhelmingly positive.

Real Time Economic Calendar provided by Investing.com.

*** Stocks highlighted are for information purposes only and should not be considered as advice to purchase or to sell mentioned securities. As always, the use of technical and fundamental analysis is encouraged in order to fine tune entry and exit points to average seasonal trends.

Stocks Entering Period of Seasonal Strength Today:

Subscribers Click on the relevant link to view the full profile. Not a subscriber? Signup here.

Brookfield Infrastructure Partners L.P. (TSE:BIP/UN.TO) Seasonal Chart

Webster Financial Corp. (NYSE:WBS) Seasonal Chart

Vaxcyte Inc. (NASD:PCVX) Seasonal Chart

Black Stone Minerals LP (NYSE:BSM) Seasonal Chart

BMO US Put Write ETF (TSE:ZPW.TO) Seasonal Chart

Disclaimer: Comments and opinions offered in this report are for information only. They should not be considered as advice to purchase or to sell mentioned securities. Data offered is believed to be accurate, but is not guaranteed.

The Markets

A recovery in this month’s beaten down stocks in the technology sector unleashed a market rebound following Wednesday’s abrupt selloff. The S&P 500 Index rallied by 1.66%, erasing the prior session’s decline and cracking above a level of declining trendline resistance that has spanned the short-term peaks since the end of the summer rally phase on July 17th. The benchmark is back within the short-term trading range between 7425 and 7550. A move above 7450 will be key to conclude the declining short-term trend that has dominated the back half of July. A zone of significant support comes in to play between 7240 and 7300, representing the lows that were charted in June. Below this span, a more substantial retracemnt of the April/May gains will trigger; it will likely take a negative catalyst to fuel a breakdown below this threshold. Support on the daily chart was broken last week around 20 and 50-day moving averages (~7468) and these variable hurdles are now in a position of resistance. The boundary just further emphasizes how the market needs a definitive breakout above the 7450 zone (20/50-day moving averages) to put the bulls back in charge. Daily momentum indicators have rolled over in recent days with MACD triggering a fresh sell signal, now aligning with the end of the summer rally period that came to an end on July 17th. In the Seasonal Advantage Portfolio that we manage for clients at CastleMoore, we have not made any changes in our allocations, yet. Following a first half performance in the Seasonal Advantage Portfolio that was well ahead of our own benchmark (as well as all major equity benchmarks in the market), we still have a bias to expect strength for the start of the second half of the year, aligning with the optimism that the manufacturing economy is expressing, but we are scrutinizing the risks that have abruptly escalated with the increase in geopolitical tensions. We continue to view earnings season as providing some cover to the headline threats. Subscribers can view what we are targeting in our list of market segments to either Accumulate or Avoid.

Today, in our Market Outlook to subscribers, we discuss the following:

Reversal and rotation: characteristic of a bull market

The setup in the software industry (MSFT)

Communications Services (META) still not showing anything to be enticed by

Looking ahead to the seasonal trade in Natural Gas

Jobless Claims the the recovery from the factory closure period, as well as the investment implications

Subscribers can look for this report in their inbox or by clicking on the following link and logging in: Market Outlook for July 31

Not signed up yet? Subscribe now to receive full access to all of the research and analysis that we publish

Sentiment on Thursday, as gauged by the put-call ratio, ended bullish at 0.88.

Soon to be released…

We a busy placing the finishing touches on our monthly report for August, providing you with the insight and analysis to position for the months ahead based on our proprietary three-pronged approach incorporating seasonal, technical, and fundamental analysis.

Subscribers can look for this report in their inbox on Friday morning.

Not signed up yet? Subscribe now to receive full access to all of the research and analysis that we publish

Seasonal charts of companies reporting earnings today: