Stock Market Outlook for April 29, 2026
Consumer deterioration providing a wide range of opportunities to hedge portfolios against downside risks.
*** Stocks highlighted are for information purposes only and should not be considered as advice to purchase or to sell mentioned securities. As always, the use of technical and fundamental analysis is encouraged in order to fine tune entry and exit points to average seasonal trends.
Stocks Entering Period of Seasonal Strength Today:
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Stock Highlight: |
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Morningstar Inc. (NASD:MORN) Seasonal Chart |
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USA Today Co., Inc. (NYSE:TDAY) Seasonal Chart
BMO Equal Weight U.S. Health Care Hedged to CAD Index ETF (TSE:ZUH.TO) Seasonal Chart
iShares Core Canadian Long Term Bond Index ETF (TSE:XLB.TO) Seasonal Chart
Richards Packaging Income Fund (TSE:RPI/UN.TO) Seasonal Chart
Data I/O Corp. (NASD:DAIO) Seasonal Chart
Bandwidth, Inc. (NASD:BAND) Seasonal Chart
Disclaimer: Comments and opinions offered in this report are for information only. They should not be considered as advice to purchase or to sell mentioned securities. Data offered is believed to be accurate, but is not guaranteed.
The Markets
Stocks slipped slightly on Tuesday as the return of the price of Oil (WTI Crude) to the psychologically important $100 level tested the bullish resolve of the market. The S&P 500 Index ended down by just less than half of one percent, opening a downside gap around previous resistance at 7150. A number of gaps remain unfilled below, including the big one between 6620 and 6740, but, ultimately, the character of the market has changed where levels of resistance hold less weight than levels of support. Downside risks in the near-term can be pegged towards levels around 6900, but, we are still playing with a positive side bias (albeit with some hedges that have been added in recent days – see our April 22 Market Outlook). Momentum indicators have been rolling over from overbought territory, highlighting upside exhaustion and lending themselves to the prospect of a digestive phase on the horizon, particularly once we get beyond the height to earnings season this week. In the Seasonal Advantage Portfolio (which is strongly higher YTD, continuing to set new high watermarks) that we manage for clients at CastleMoore, we continue to be fully exposed to risk (stocks) after flipping from our low volatility stance around the end of March and our performance is benefiting. The conflict in Iran remains a wildcard and we are running down our cues that would warrant a more defensive posture in risk assets. Subscribers can view the themes in our chart books to either Accumulate or Avoid that we continue to gear portfolios towards.
Today, in our Market Outlook to subscribers, we discuss the following:
- Market Setup & Near-Term Outlook
- Technology Sector at a Pivot Point
- The Change in US Home Prices and the Lag they are Showing Compared to Last Year’s Trajectory
- Consumer Lending Activity becoming Derailed from Seasonal Norms heading through the Spring Home Selling Period
- Weak Discretionary Spending Momentum
- Bearish View on Consumer Sectors and What is Enticing to Short to Hedge Portfolios Against Broader Market Risks
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Sentiment on Tuesday, as gauged by the put-call ratio, ended bullish at 0.85.
Seasonal charts of companies reporting earnings today:
S&P 500 Index
TSE Composite
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