Stock Market Outlook for May 1, 2026
The S&P 500 Index has averaged a return of 0.9% in May with a gain frequency of 68%.
*** Stocks highlighted are for information purposes only and should not be considered as advice to purchase or to sell mentioned securities. As always, the use of technical and fundamental analysis is encouraged in order to fine tune entry and exit points to average seasonal trends.
Stocks Entering Period of Seasonal Strength Today:
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Stock Highlight: |
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TFI International Inc. (NYSE:TFII) Seasonal Chart |
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ProShares Ultra NASDAQ Biotechnology (NASD:BIB) Seasonal Chart
ProShares S&P Technology Dividend Aristocrats ETF (AMEX:TDV) Seasonal Chart
SoFi Select 500 ETF (AMEX:SFY) Seasonal Chart
Ooma, Inc. (NYSE:OOMA) Seasonal Chart
Gildan Activewear, Inc. (NYSE:GIL) Seasonal Chart
iShares Self-Driving EV and Tech ETF (AMEX:IDRV) Seasonal Chart
Hut 8 Mining Corp. (NASD:HUT) Seasonal Chart
Scholastic Corp. (NASD:SCHL) Seasonal Chart
Editas Medicine, Inc. (NASD:EDIT) Seasonal Chart
Digi Intl Inc. (NASD:DGII) Seasonal Chart
Herbalife Nutrition Ltd. (NYSE:HLF) Seasonal Chart
Disclaimer: Comments and opinions offered in this report are for information only. They should not be considered as advice to purchase or to sell mentioned securities. Data offered is believed to be accurate, but is not guaranteed.
The Markets
Earnings optimism and a rollover of oil, yields and the US dollar provided the fuel to elevate stocks to fresh all-time highs, capping off the second best April performance for the S&P 500 Index on record. The S&P 500 Index ended higher by just over one percent, moving above resistance that the benchmark had been struggling with in recent days as 7150. A number of gaps remain unfilled below, including the big one between 6620 and 6740, but, ultimately, the character of the market has changed where levels of resistance hold less weight than levels of support. Downside risks in the near-term can be pegged towards levels around 6900, but, we are still playing with a positive side bias (albeit with hedges that have been added in recent days – see our April 22 Market Outlook). Momentum indicators have been rolling over from overbought territory, highlighting upside exhaustion and lending themselves to the prospect of a digestive phase on the horizon, particularly once we get beyond the height to earnings season this week. In the Seasonal Advantage Portfolio (which is strongly higher YTD, continuing to set new high watermarks) that we manage for clients at CastleMoore, we continue to be fully exposed to risk (stocks) after flipping from our low volatility stance around the end of March and our performance is benefiting. The conflict in Iran remains a wildcard and we are running down our cues that would warrant a more defensive posture in risk assets. Subscribers can view the themes in our chart books to either Accumulate or Avoid that we continue to gear portfolios towards.
Today, in our Market Outlook to subscribers, we discuss the following:
- Market Performance & Technical Backdrop
- Trend & Long-Term Outlook
- Seasonality: Entering a Weaker Period
- Labor Market Strength
- Securities that have gained or lost is every May over their trading history
Subscribers can look for this report in their inbox or by clicking on the following link and logging in: Market Outlook for May 1
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Looking forward, seasonally, the month of May has become known as the time of year to reduce risk in portfolios given the lack of favourable fundamental tendencies that take place through the summer. Flatter returns than the past six months are the norm, but, within this period, opportunities to accumulate broad market exposure still exist, such as the period surrounding the Memorial Day holiday (May 25) and the summer rally period between June 27th and July 17th, on average.
Over the past five decades, the S&P 500 Index has averaged a return of 0.9% in the fifth month of the year with a gain frequency of 68%. Returns have ranged from a loss of 8.2% in May of 2010 to a gain of 9.2% in May of 1990. The average pattern for the month, based on this five decade timeframe, shows strength at the start and end of the month and slight weakness in between. We provide further insight on how to play the month(s) ahead in our just released monthly report for May. Subscribe now
Just Released…
Our monthly report for May is out, providing you with everything that you need to know to navigate the market through the month(s) ahead.
Highlights in this report include:
- Equity market tendencies in the month of May
- A review of the efficacy of the “Sell in May” strategy
- Mid-Term election year tendency under a new presidential party
- Short Covering Surge Exhausted
- Where we are at with the Tech trade
- Value to Growth
- Dollar and Rates
- Consumer hitting a wall
- Staples over Discretionary
- Gold losing its shine (for now)
- Portfolio Hedges
- Emerging Markets
- Inverse Correlation of Oil and stocks breaking, for now
- AI still dominating in Industrial Production
- Time to overweight bonds?
- Defense or Offense: Industry groups that provide the best of both worlds during the summer
- Our list of all segments of the market to either Accumulate or Avoid, along with relevant ETFs
- Positioning for the months ahead
- Sector Reviews and Ratings
- Stocks that have Frequently Gained in the Month of May
- Notable Stocks and ETFs Entering their Period of Strength in May
Subscribers can look for this 115-page report in their inbox and in the report archive.
Not signed up yet? Subscribe now to receive full access to all of the research and analysis that we publish
With the new month upon us and as we celebrate the release of our monthly report for May, today we release our screen of all of the stocks that have gained in every May over their trading history. While we at Equity Clock focus on a three-pronged approach (seasonal, technical, and fundamental analysis) to gain exposure to areas of the market that typically perform well over intermediate (2 to 6 months) timeframes, we know that stocks that have a 100% frequency of success for a particular month is generally of interest to those pursuing a seasonal investment strategy. Below are the results:
And how about those securities that have never gained in this fifth month of the year, here they are:
*Note: None of the results highlighted above have the 20 years of data that we like to see in order to accurately gauge the annual recurring, seasonal influences impacting an investment, therefore the reliability of the results should be questioned. We present the above list as an example of how our downloadable spreadsheet available to yearly subscribers can be filtered. For a more extensive list of high frequency (70% ) gainers for the month of May, please refer to our monthly report.
Sentiment on Thursday, as gauged by the put-call ratio, ended bullish at 0.79
Seasonal charts of companies reporting earnings today:
S&P 500 Index
TSE Composite
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