Stock Market Outlook for July 13, 2026
The summer rally period continues to defy seasonal norms, despite macro fundamental threats.
*** Stocks highlighted are for information purposes only and should not be considered as advice to purchase or to sell mentioned securities. As always, the use of technical and fundamental analysis is encouraged in order to fine tune entry and exit points to average seasonal trends.
Stocks Entering Period of Seasonal Strength Today:
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Stock Highlight: |
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CDW Corp. (NASD:CDW) Seasonal Chart |
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iShares ESG Advanced MSCI Canada Index ETF (TSE:XCSR.TO) Seasonal Chart
InMode Ltd. (NASD:INMD) Seasonal Chart
SPDR S&P Insurance ETF (NYSE:KIE) Seasonal Chart
Atrium Mortgage Investment Corp. (TSE:AI.TO) Seasonal Chart
Motorola Solutions Inc. (NYSE:MSI) Seasonal Chart
Donaldson Co, Inc. (NYSE:DCI) Seasonal Chart
BMO Premium Yield ETF (TSE:ZPAY.TO) Seasonal Chart
Hewlett Packard Enterprise Co. (NYSE:HPE) Seasonal Chart
Invesco S&P 500 Value with Momentum ETF (AMEX:SPVM) Seasonal Chart
Investors Title Co. (NASD:ITIC) Seasonal Chart
iShares S&P/TSX Canadian Dividend Aristocrats Index ETF (TSE:CDZ.TO) Seasonal Chart
iShares Canadian Financial Monthly Income ETF (TSE:FIE.TO) Seasonal Chart
Disclaimer: Comments and opinions offered in this report are for information only. They should not be considered as advice to purchase or to sell mentioned securities. Data offered is believed to be accurate, but is not guaranteed.
The Markets
Stocks inched higher in the last session of the week, continuing to add to the summer rally gains that have been exceptional, thus far. The S&P 500 Index gained just over four-tenths of one percent, continuing to advance above declining trendline resistance from the month of June and moving above the recent short-term trading range between 7425 and 7550. Theory suggests that the violation of the 125-point span projects an upside target of the same magnitude, or to 7675. Support on the daily chart is being maintained at 20 and 50-day moving averages (~7433), which have converged on one another in a bearish manner. Daily momentum indicators have curled higher in recent days, triggering near-term buy signals that have aligned nicely with the start of the summer rally phase; MACD crossed above its signal line in what is a fresh buy signal following the sell trigger that was recorded in the middle of May. In the Seasonal Advantage Portfolio that we manage for clients at CastleMoore, we remain positioned for this summer rally phase that began on June 27th (S&P 500 Index is strongly higher, above the seasonal norm, since that point). Following a first half performance in the Seasonal Advantage Portfolio that was well ahead of our own benchmark (as well as all major equity benchmarks in the market), we are still anticipating strength for the start of the second half of the year, but we are scrutinizing the risks that have abruptly escalated with the increase in geopolitical tensions. The start of earnings season provides some cover to the headline threats. Subscribers can view what we are targeting in our list of market segments to either Accumulate or Avoid.
Today, in our Market Outlook to subscribers, we discuss the following:
- Weekly look at the large-cap benchmark
- NVDA providing a bullish signal to the market
- Canada Labour Force Survey
- US Employment Situation
- The employment trend of one particular sector providing a warning sign to the broader health of the economy
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Sentiment on Friday, as gauged by the put-call ratio, ended bullish at 0.81.
Seasonal charts of companies reporting earnings today:
S&P 500 Index
TSE Composite
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