Stock Market Outlook for September 29, 2026
Increasing market fragility may call for action in portfolios once into the month of October.
*** Stocks highlighted are for information purposes only and should not be considered as advice to purchase or to sell mentioned securities. As always, the use of technical and fundamental analysis is encouraged in order to fine tune entry and exit points to average seasonal trends.
Stocks Entering Period of Seasonal Strength Today:
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Kronos Worldwide Inc. (NYSE:KRO) Seasonal Chart
The Bitcoin Fund (TSE:QBTC/U.TO) Seasonal Chart
Disclaimer: Comments and opinions offered in this report are for information only. They should not be considered as advice to purchase or to sell mentioned securities. Data offered is believed to be accurate, but is not guaranteed.
The Markets
Stocks weakened to start the week as the ongoing rise in interest rates contributed to further destabilization in the market (particularly relating to bonds and commodities). The S&P 500 Index shed three-quarters of percent, moving back to the upside open gap (a zone of support) charted last Monday between 7650 and 7690. Previous resistance remains as implied support at 7620. Monday’s move certainly clouds the contention of the start of a new ultra-short-term rising trend following the declining path that was charted since the middle of August. Ultimately, more of the same consolidation that the benchmark has been subjected to for months continues. Historically, this is the most volatile period for equity performance that spans the last two weeks of September, therefore heightened caution has been appropriate, but we have been pushing back against the negativity that is typical for this timeframe (see our September 18th report). We continue to examine what may be the appropriate stance in equity positioning for the month of October. In the Seasonal Advantage Portfolio that we manage for clients at CastleMoore, we continue to be fully allocated to stocks, aligning with the optimism that the manufacturing economy is expressing, but we are looking at how we are going to react when the calendar flips to the new month. Subscribers can stay on top of our thinking and what we are watching in our regular reports, as well as view what we are targeting in our list of market segments to either Accumulate or Avoid.
Want to know which areas of the market to buy or sell? Our Weekly Chart Books have just been updated, providing a clear Accumulate, Avoid, or Neutral rating for currencies, cryptocurrencies, commodities, broad markets, and subsectors/industries of the market. Subscribers can login and click on the relevant links to access.
- Currencies
- Cryptocurrencies
- Commodities
- Major Benchmarks
- Sub-sectors / Industries
- ETFs: Bonds | Commodities | Equity Markets | Industries | Sectors
Today, in our Market Outlook to subscribers, we discuss the following:
- Our weekly chart books update, along with our list of market segments to Accumulate or Avoid
- The fragility in the market and why action may be warranted in portfolios for the month of October
- Other Notes
Subscribers can look for this report in their inbox or by clicking on the following link and logging in: Market Outlook for September 29
Sentiment on Monday, as gauged by the put-call ratio, ended bullish at 0.85.
Seasonal charts of companies reporting earnings today:
S&P 500 Index
TSE Composite
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