Stock Market Outlook for December 1, 2025
The S&P 500 Index has averaged a return of 1.2% in December with a frequency of gains for the month coming in at 72%.
*** Stocks highlighted are for information purposes only and should not be considered as advice to purchase or to sell mentioned securities. As always, the use of technical and fundamental analysis is encouraged in order to fine tune entry and exit points to average seasonal trends.
Stocks Entering Period of Seasonal Strength Today:
Subscribers Click on the relevant link to view the full profile. Not a subscriber? Signup here.
Arcosa, Inc. (NYSE:ACA) Seasonal Chart
Invesco S&P International Developed Momentum ETF (AMEX:IDMO) Seasonal Chart
Applied Materials, Inc. (NASD:AMAT) Seasonal Chart
Boston Scientific Corp. (NYSE:BSX) Seasonal Chart
Estee Lauder Cos. (NYSE:EL) Seasonal Chart
Stryker Corp. (NYSE:SYK) Seasonal Chart
American Woodmark Corp. (NASD:AMWD) Seasonal Chart
Archer Daniels Midland Co. (NYSE:ADM) Seasonal Chart
Manulife Financial Corp. (NYSE:MFC) Seasonal Chart
iShares MSCI EAFE Small-Cap ETF (NASD:SCZ) Seasonal Chart
Edwards Lifesciences Corp. (NYSE:EW) Seasonal Chart
Henry Schein, Inc. (NASD:HSIC) Seasonal Chart
Eastern Platinum Ltd. (TSE:ELR.TO) Seasonal Chart
iShares Core Aggressive Allocation ETF (NYSE:AOA) Seasonal Chart
iShares Core MSCI EAFE ETF (AMEX:IEFA) Seasonal Chart
iShares U.S. Medical Devices ETF (NYSE:IHI) Seasonal Chart
Teucrium Soybean Fund (NYSE:SOYB) Seasonal Chart
iShares Currency Hedged MSCI ACWI ex U.S. ETF (AMEX:HAWX) Seasonal Chart
iShares Core US REIT ETF (AMEX:USRT) Seasonal Chart
Vanguard Real Estate ETF (NYSE:VNQ) Seasonal Chart
Zimmer Biomet Holdings, Inc. (NYSE:ZBH) Seasonal Chart
Valero Energy Corp (NYSE:VLO) Seasonal Chart
First Asset Tech Giants Covered Call ETF (CAD Hedged) (TSE:TXF.TO) Seasonal Chart
Invesco Global Listed Private Equity ETF (NYSE:PSP) Seasonal Chart
The Markets
Add a fifth session of gains as the Thanksgiving holiday trade that we have been targeting in our work concludes with the second best return in the past six decades. The S&P 500 Index advanced by 0.54%, inching above the last point of gap resistance that was originally opened on October 27th around 6830. The previous levels of resistance (including 6770) now turn into support. The market continues to prove that it is no longer showing greater respect to levels of resistance than to levels of support, at least on an ultra-short-term timescale. The next major threshold to scrutinize is, quite obviously, the all-time high at 6920 that was charted at the end of October. The bears continue to contend with positive seasonality for this time of year with gains the norm for market benchmarks through the start of December, leaving the bias to use the recent weakness to buy into risk rather than sell out of it. As we have been emphasizing, the 20-week moving average (~6550) has been the desired risk-reward point to adding new risk exposure to portfolios and the large-cap benchmark tested this point a week ago Thursday. So far, everything is playing out well according to our playbook and our list of candidates in the market that are worthy to Accumulate or Avoid continues to provide ideas on how to position in this market that has become fairly volatile in recent weeks.
Today, in our Market Outlook to subscribers, we discuss the following:
- Second best Thanksgiving week return in over six decades
- A look at the monthly chart of the S&P 500 Index
- December seasonality
- Santa Claus Rally
- Securities than have gained or lost in every December over their trading history
- Canada GDP and the category that stood out in the report, along with the investment implications
- Put-call ratio pointing to the emergence of complacency
Subscribers can look for this report in their inbox or by clicking on the following link and logging in: Market Outlook for December 1
Not signed up yet? Subscribe now to receive full access to all of the research and analysis that we publish
Looking ahead, now a full month into the best six months of the year for stocks, December tends to continue the strong pace of monthly returns for equity benchmarks. The last month of the year is typically one of the strongest periods for stocks as end of quarter and end of year reallocations cause a drift higher in prices, particularly around the Christmas holiday, a period that has become known as the Santa Claus rally. Over the past five decades, the S&P 500 Index has averaged a return of 1.2% in this last month of the year with a frequency of gains for the month coming in at 72%. Returns have ranged from a loss of 9.2% in December of 2018 to a gain of 11.2% in December of 1991. We provide more insight in our just released monthly report for December. Subscribers can look for this report in their inbox or in the archive at https://charts.equityclock.com/
Just Released…
Our monthly report for December is out, providing you with everything that you need to know to navigate the market through the month(s) ahead.
Highlights in this report include:
- Equity market tendencies in the month of December
- Mid-Term Election Year Tendency for Stocks
- Desired stocks through year-end
- Key to the health of the market in Financials?
- Scrutinizing the state of liquidity in the market
- Bitcoin
- Time to consider inflation hedges for portfolios?
- Time to rotate to Canadian equities?
- Reason for hope in Energy stocks this winter
- Small-Cap Effect
- Santa Claus Rally
- Market Valuations
- US Dollar Tailwind
- Our list of all segments of the market to either Accumulate or Avoid, along with relevant ETFs
- Positioning for the months ahead
- Sector Reviews and Ratings
- Stocks that have Frequently Gained in the Month of December
- Notable Stocks and ETFs Entering their Period of Strength in December
Subscribers can look for this 112-page report in their inbox and in the report archive.
Not signed up yet? Subscribe now to receive full access to all of the research and analysis that we publish
With the new month upon us and as we celebrate the release of our monthly report for December, today we release our screen of all of the stocks that have gained in every December over their trading history. While we at Equity Clock focus on a three-pronged approach (seasonal, technical, and fundamental analysis) to gain exposure to areas of the market that typically perform well over intermediate (2 to 6 months) timeframes, we know that stocks that have a 100% frequency of success for a particular month is generally of interest to those pursuing a seasonal investment strategy. Below are the results:
And how about those securities that have never gained in this last month of the year, here they are:
*Note: None of the results highlighted above have the 20 years of data that we like to see in order to accurately gauge the annual recurring, seasonal influences impacting an investment, therefore the reliability of the results should be questioned. We present the above list as an example of how our downloadable spreadsheet available to yearly subscribers can be filtered. For a more extensive list of high frequency (70% ) gainers for the month of December, please refer to our monthly report.
Sentiment on Friday, as gauged by the put-call ratio, ended overly bullish at 0.67.
Seasonal charts of companies reporting earnings today:
S&P 500 Index
TSE Composite
| Sponsored By... |
|
