Stock Market Outlook for June 12, 2026
The shallowest year-to-date percentage change in initial jobless claims on record (excluding the pandemic) is expressing serious concerns pertaining to the health of the labor market.
*** Stocks highlighted are for information purposes only and should not be considered as advice to purchase or to sell mentioned securities. As always, the use of technical and fundamental analysis is encouraged in order to fine tune entry and exit points to average seasonal trends.
Stocks Entering Period of Seasonal Strength Today:
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Transmation, Inc. (NASD:TRNS) Seasonal Chart |
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St Joe Corp. (NYSE:JOE) Seasonal Chart
Andrew Peller Ltd. (TSE:ADW/A.TO) Seasonal Chart
Disclaimer: Comments and opinions offered in this report are for information only. They should not be considered as advice to purchase or to sell mentioned securities. Data offered is believed to be accurate, but is not guaranteed.
The Markets
Headlines that the US president has paused strikes against Iran amidst an imminent signing of a deal sent stocks higher on Thursday, following the same script that has been repetitive in recent weeks/months. The S&P 500 Index jumped by 1.75%, erasing the prior session’s decline and breaking above ultra-short-term declining trendline resistance that has kept the benchmark strained over the past week. A cap remains intact around the 7600 level and former variable support around the 20-day moving average continues to provide a hurdle that short-term traders have been selling into earlier this week. A test of levels around the 50-day moving average at 7230 was observed on Wednesday, but, ultimately, levels back to previously broken horizontal resistance around 7000 are still fair game amidst a digestion of early year strength aligned with this weaker period on the calendar before the end of the quarter. In the Seasonal Advantage Portfolio that we manage for clients at CastleMoore, we had been prepared for a more volatile/risk-off market framework and we have managed to stay afloat in both positive and negative sessions this month, generating significant alpha in the process. The conflict/deal in Iran is the ongoing wildcard, but we have been positioning based on what is tangible (and working), rather than speculation on what may result. Subscribers can view the themes in our chart books to either Accumulate or Avoid that we continue to gear portfolios towards.
Today, in our Market Outlook to subscribers, we discuss the following:
- SpaceX IPO: What It Could Mean for Markets
- Inflation Remains a Big Macro Concern
- Industrial Sector: Time to Be More Selective
- Materials Sector: Base Over Precious
- Labor Market Cracks Are Emerging
- Portfolio Positioning Themes
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Sentiment on Thursday, as gauged by the put-call ratio, ended bullish at 0.85.
Seasonal charts of companies reporting earnings today:
- No significant earnings reports scheduled for today.
S&P 500 Index
TSE Composite
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