Stock Market Outlook for March 3, 2026
Oil Surges on Iran Strikes as the S&P Battles 6,900: We’ll tell you what to lookout for to determine any derailments versus the seasonal norm to be concerned of for the months ahead.
*** Stocks highlighted are for information purposes only and should not be considered as advice to purchase or to sell mentioned securities. As always, the use of technical and fundamental analysis is encouraged in order to fine tune entry and exit points to average seasonal trends.
Stocks Entering Period of Seasonal Strength Today:
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Alphabet Inc. – Class C (NASD:GOOG) Seasonal Chart
Granite Real Estate Investment Trust (TSE:GRT/UN.TO) Seasonal Chart
Disclaimer: Comments and opinions offered in this report are for information only. They should not be considered as advice to purchase or to sell mentioned securities. Data offered is believed to be accurate, but is not guaranteed.
The Markets
Stocks were volatile on Monday, but closed little changed, following US and Israel attacks on Iran over the weekend. The S&P 500 Index ended up by four basis points (0.04%), shaking off the opening decline, but holding below the important 6900 pivot point that we have highlighted in our reporting; ongoing weakness around this zone would increase the likelihood of a downside resolution to our target of 6730, or the mid-December lows, during this normally weak timeframe in the equity market. The reaction to start the week is fairly muted and traders should expect more volatility as the situation evolves; this is not a one-day event. The 100-day moving average for the large-cap benchmark (6833) continues to provide significant support, but a crack of this variable hurdle opens the window towards the risks that we have highlighted of the benchmark during this normally weak timeframe for the market (eg. SPX down to 6730). In the Seasonal Advantage Portfolio that we manage for clients at CastleMoore, we continue to balance the near-term risk-reward in the market appropriately, barbelling low volatility plays with pro-cyclical/commodity oriented bets, both sides of which continue to work. Themes in our chart books to either Accumulate or Avoid continue to be appropriately dialed in to the trends that are working and intact.
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- Currencies
- Cryptocurrencies
- Commodities
- Major Benchmarks
- Sub-sectors / Industries
- ETFs: Bonds | Commodities | Equity Markets | Industries | Sectors
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Today, in our Market Outlook to subscribers, we discuss the following:
- Geopolitical Shock – Market Reaction Muted (For Now)
- Strategy – Barbell Approach Still Working
- Energy Spike & Inflation Risk
- Watch Yields & The Dollar
- New Accumulate and Avoid candidates
- Other Notes
- Overall Message
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Sentiment on Monday, as gauged by the put-call ratio, ended bullish at 0.88.
Seasonal charts of companies reporting earnings today:
S&P 500 Index
TSE Composite
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