Stock Market Outlook for March 9, 2026
Stocks at risk of revealing the normal pattern of weakness through the first half of mid-term election years.
*** Stocks highlighted are for information purposes only and should not be considered as advice to purchase or to sell mentioned securities. As always, the use of technical and fundamental analysis is encouraged in order to fine tune entry and exit points to average seasonal trends.
Stocks Entering Period of Seasonal Strength Today:
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Lululemon Athletica Inc. (NASD:LULU) Seasonal Chart
Bombardier Inc. (TSE:BBD/B.TO) Seasonal Chart
Gaia, Inc. (NASD:GAIA) Seasonal Chart
Microsoft Corp. (NASD:MSFT) Seasonal Chart
Equinix, Inc. (NASD:EQIX) Seasonal Chart
Vertiv Holdings, LLC (NYSE:VRT) Seasonal Chart
Sempra Energy (NYSE:SRE) Seasonal Chart
Vermilion Energy Inc. (TSE:VET.TO) Seasonal Chart
Ovintiv Inc (NYSE:OVV) Seasonal Chart
Alerian Energy Infrastructure ETF (AMEX:ENFR) Seasonal Chart
Global X MLP & Energy Infrastructure ETF (AMEX:MLPX) Seasonal Chart
Disclaimer: Comments and opinions offered in this report are for information only. They should not be considered as advice to purchase or to sell mentioned securities. Data offered is believed to be accurate, but is not guaranteed.
The Markets
Ongoing volatility amidst the rise in the price of oil had traders derisking into the weekend. The S&P 500 Index closed down by 1.33%, continuing to weaken below the important 6900 pivot point that we have highlighted in our reporting. Levels of resistance overhead remain heavy and, still, there is certainly no evidence that selling pressures have concluded. The 100-day moving average for the large-cap benchmark (6838) that was providing significant support has been broken, putting the 150-day and 200-day moving averages in play (6735 and 6582, respectively). A sustained violation of horizontal support around 6800, resolving an approximately 200-point range from the last few months, proposes a downside target of 6600. So long as strains against the market continue, traders looking to ramp up exposure in portfolios should be on the lookout for a washout event where weak hands are shaken loose of present holdings and a reset is obtained. We are not there yet. In the Seasonal Advantage Portfolio that we manage for clients at CastleMoore, we have been balancing the near-term risk-reward in the market, barbelling low volatility plays with pro-cyclical/commodity oriented bets, an approach that continues align with the trends in the market. We look forward to being able to ramp up risk exposure again at more favourable levels for the strength that is normal of equity markets in late March and through the month of April. Subscribers can view the themes in our chart books to either Accumulate or Avoid that are working and intact.
Today, in our Market Outlook to subscribers, we discuss the following:
- Market Overview
- Technical and Trend Signals
- Portfolio Strategy
- Employment Report – Weak Headline, Mixed Details
- Sector Trends in Employment
- Inflation Pressures Building
Subscribers can look for this report in their inbox or by clicking on the following link and logging in: Market Outlook for March 9
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Sentiment on Friday, as gauged by the put-call ratio, ended close to neutral at 0.97.
Seasonal charts of companies reporting earnings today:
S&P 500 Index
TSE Composite
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