Stock Market Outlook for March 24, 2026
How to play the period of seasonal strength in equity markets over the next few weeks and which sector is providing the preferred exposure.
*** Stocks highlighted are for information purposes only and should not be considered as advice to purchase or to sell mentioned securities. As always, the use of technical and fundamental analysis is encouraged in order to fine tune entry and exit points to average seasonal trends.
Stocks Entering Period of Seasonal Strength Today:
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Montrose Environmental Group Inc. (NYSE:MEG) Seasonal Chart
Alpha Architect Freedom 100 Emerging Markets ETF (AMEX:FRDM) Seasonal Chart
Johnson Controls Intl plc (NYSE:JCI) Seasonal Chart
ADF Group, Inc. (TSE:DRX.TO) Seasonal Chart
National Health Invs, Inc. (NYSE:NHI) Seasonal Chart
Disclaimer: Comments and opinions offered in this report are for information only. They should not be considered as advice to purchase or to sell mentioned securities. Data offered is believed to be accurate, but is not guaranteed.
The Markets
Stocks snapped back on Monday following the announcement from Donald Trump that the US and Iran are in “productive talks” to alleviate tensions. The S&P 500 Index closed up by 1.15%, intersecting with the 200-day moving average that was broken late last week. A substantial upside gap charted at the open between 6500 and 6575 presents a zone of support as the benchmark reaches back and tests short-term horizontal resistance at 6620. The benchmark continues to abide by the limits of its declining trend channel (lower limit was tested on Friday) that it has been in month-to-date and the band between 6500 and 6600 that we have speculated as likely to provide support is holding, for now. As highlighted in our last report, the probability of downside exhaustion in the near-term is quite good with the Relative Strength Index (RSI) testing levels below 30 for the first time since the Liberation Day selloff last April. In the Seasonal Advantage Portfolio that we manage for clients at CastleMoore, we added to risk exposure at the end of last week for the seasonally strong window that runs through the next four to six weeks. The conflict in Iran remains a wildcard, but we do not have the indications that would be required to suggest abandoning our seasonal mandate calling for strength in stocks at least into early April; beyond this period, we certainly have concerns and we will look to address each of them in our reports to subscribers through the weeks ahead. Subscribers can view the themes in our chart books to either Accumulate or Avoid that are working and intact.
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Today, in our Market Outlook to subscribers, we discuss the following:
- Market Rebound: Oversold Bounce Begins
- Technical Setup: Still Fragile but Risk-Reward has Improved
- Macro Catalyst: Iran De-Escalation Drives Sentiment
- Strategy Shift: Risk-On for Seasonal Window
- Sector Focus: The Most Enticing Sector to Pursue
- New “Accumulate” Opportunities
- Emerging Markets
- Macro Watch: Dollar & Rates Still Critical
Rotation: Moving Away from Defensives- Portfolio Positioning
- Risks to Watch
- Other Notes
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Sentiment on Monday, as gauged by the put-call ratio, ended bullish at 0.93.
Seasonal charts of companies reporting earnings today:
S&P 500 Index
TSE Composite
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