Stock Market Outlook for June 23, 2026
Conditions for risk assets are getting tougher as the US Dollar breaks out and as the cost of borrowing confirms a critical level of support.
*** Stocks highlighted are for information purposes only and should not be considered as advice to purchase or to sell mentioned securities. As always, the use of technical and fundamental analysis is encouraged in order to fine tune entry and exit points to average seasonal trends.
Stocks Entering Period of Seasonal Strength Today:
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Stock Highlight: |
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Rush Enterprises, Inc. (NASD:RUSHB) Seasonal Chart |
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Douglas Emmett Inc. (NYSE:DEI) Seasonal Chart
Culp, Inc. (NYSE:CULP) Seasonal Chart
Disclaimer: Comments and opinions offered in this report are for information only. They should not be considered as advice to purchase or to sell mentioned securities. Data offered is believed to be accurate, but is not guaranteed.
The Markets
Weakness in Communication Services (GOOGL, META) and Consumer stocks worked to drag on broad market benchmarks on Monday as portfolio managers continue to reallocate ahead of the end of the quarter. The S&P 500 Index shed just less than four-tenths of one percent, still trading within the range of last Monday’s upside gap and remaining pegged to its 20-day moving average. The ultra-short-term trend of the benchmark still shows lower-lows and lower-highs for the month of June, a notoriously mean reverting month that tends to result in a digestion of early year gains. Intermediate-term support at the 50-day moving average at 7328 has, so far, stood in the way of a more detrimental digestion of early year strength, coinciding with end of quarter rebalancing, but the appearance of a lower short-term high below the early June peak places our downside risk target of 7000 (previous horizontal resistance) back on the table. Daily momentum indicators are negatively diverging from price, emphasizing the upside exhaustion/digestion that the price action has portrayed in recent weeks. In the Seasonal Advantage Portfolio that we manage for clients at CastleMoore, we remain positioned for this more volatile/risk-off market framework and we chose not to react to the positivity that the market had shown early last week that was pushing back against our thesis of how the market was to perform in this last month of the quarter (eg. digestion of early year gains). The state of the energy market and the impact of the cost of borrowing/value of the dollar remain key risks to the market, something that continues to be scrutinized. Subscribers can view the themes in our chart books to either Accumulate or Avoid that we continue to gear portfolios towards.
Want to know which areas of the market to buy or sell? Our Weekly Chart Books have just been updated, providing a clear Accumulate, Avoid, or Neutral rating for currencies, cryptocurrencies, commodities, broad markets, and subsectors/industries of the market. Subscribers can login and click on the relevant links to access.
- Currencies
- Cryptocurrencies
- Commodities
- Major Benchmarks
- Sub-sectors / Industries
- ETFs: Bonds | Commodities | Equity Markets | Industries | Sectors
Today, in our Market Outlook to subscribers, we discuss the following:
- Our weekly chart books update, along with our list of all segments of the market to either Accumulate or Avoid
- Why conditions are getting tougher for risk assets heading towards the notorious summer rally period
- Other Notes
Subscribers can look for this report in their inbox or by clicking on the following link and logging in: Market Outlook for June 23
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Sentiment on Monday, as gauged by the put-call ratio, ended bullish at 0.88.
Seasonal charts of companies reporting earnings today:
S&P 500 Index
TSE Composite
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