Stock Market Outlook for June 29, 2026
Playing the Golden opportunity for the summer rally period in the market.
*** Stocks highlighted are for information purposes only and should not be considered as advice to purchase or to sell mentioned securities. As always, the use of technical and fundamental analysis is encouraged in order to fine tune entry and exit points to average seasonal trends.
Stocks Entering Period of Seasonal Strength Today:
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Stock Highlight: |
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Hubbell, Inc. (NYSE:HUBB) Seasonal Chart |
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Marathon Petroleum Corp. (NYSE:MPC) Seasonal Chart
PAMT Corp. (NASD:PAMT) Seasonal Chart
Sitka Gold Corp. (TSXV:SIG.V) Seasonal Chart
Brookfield Property Partners LP (NASD:BPYPO) Seasonal Chart
Disclaimer: Comments and opinions offered in this report are for information only. They should not be considered as advice to purchase or to sell mentioned securities. Data offered is believed to be accurate, but is not guaranteed.
The Markets
Further rotation in the market ahead of the end of the quarter continued to pressure stocks lower on Friday, particularly in the overheated Technology sector that had produced phenomenal gains in recent months. The S&P 500 Index slipped by a mere five basis point (0.05%), remaining below the downside gap that was opened on Tuesday. The gap between 7400 and 7460 defines another barrier overhead for the benchmark to contend with. The ultra-short-term trend of the benchmark still shows lower-lows and lower-highs for the month of June, a notoriously mean reverting month that tends to result in a digestion of early year gains. Intermediate-term support at the 50-day moving average at 7363 continues being pressured and was marginally broken on the day, attempting to stand in the way of a more detrimental digestion of early year strength, coinciding with end of quarter rebalancing. The appearance of a lower short-term high below the early June peak keeps our downside risk target of 7000 (previous horizontal resistance) on the table, however, the window to this period of normal June weakness is closing. Daily momentum indicators have been negatively diverging from price, emphasizing the upside exhaustion/digestion that the price action has portrayed in recent weeks. In the Seasonal Advantage Portfolio that we manage for clients at CastleMoore, we have started to strip off some of our volatility hedges via our inverse gold miners allocation and we have put cash to work. More work is still required to tailor the beta of the portfolio towards where it should be for the summer rally timeframe. We feel that we have had the perfect recipe of offence and defence in June that has generated significant alpha and it is difficult to move away from this formula that has worked so well, but now is the time to focus on an offence oriented portfolio, at least through the next few weeks. Subscribers can view the themes in our chart books to either Accumulate or Avoid that we continue to gear portfolios towards.
Today, in our Market Outlook to subscribers, we discuss the following:
- Weekly look at the large-cap benchmark
- Gold
- The breakdown in yields and near-term upside exhaustion in the US Dollar
- The action we are taking in the Super Simple Seasonal Portfolio
- The Summer Rally Period and preferred bets for this timeframe
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Sentiment on Friday, as gauged by the put-call ratio, ended bearish at 1.03.
Seasonal charts of companies reporting earnings today:
S&P 500 Index
TSE Composite
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