Stock Market Outlook for June 26, 2026
Our list of our highest conviction sectors for the month of July. The time to position for the summer rally period is near.
*** Stocks highlighted are for information purposes only and should not be considered as advice to purchase or to sell mentioned securities. As always, the use of technical and fundamental analysis is encouraged in order to fine tune entry and exit points to average seasonal trends.
Stocks Entering Period of Seasonal Strength Today:
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Stock Highlight: |
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CrossAmerica Partners LP (NYSE:CAPL) Seasonal Chart |
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TD Active U.S. Enhanced Dividend ETF (TSE:TUED.TO) Seasonal Chart
Newell Brands Inc. (NASD:NWL) Seasonal Chart
Disclaimer: Comments and opinions offered in this report are for information only. They should not be considered as advice to purchase or to sell mentioned securities. Data offered is believed to be accurate, but is not guaranteed.
The Markets
Ongoing rotation in the market ahead of the end of the quarter continued to pressure stocks lower on Thursday. The S&P 500 Index slipped by a mere basis point (0.01%), remaining below the downside gap that was opened on Tuesday. The gap between 7400 and 7460 defines another barrier overhead for the benchmark to contend with. The ultra-short-term trend of the benchmark still shows lower-lows and lower-highs for the month of June, a notoriously mean reverting month that tends to result in a digestion of early year gains. Intermediate-term support at the 50-day moving average at 7356 continues being pressured, attempting to stand in the way of a more detrimental digestion of early year strength, coinciding with end of quarter rebalancing. The appearance of a lower short-term high below the early June peak keeps our downside risk target of 7000 (previous horizontal resistance) on the table, however, the window to this period of normal June weakness is narrowing fast. Daily momentum indicators have been negatively diverging from price, emphasizing the upside exhaustion/digestion that the price action has portrayed in recent weeks. In the Seasonal Advantage Portfolio that we manage for clients at CastleMoore, we remain positioned for this more volatile/risk-off market framework and we chose not to react to the positivity that the market had shown early last week that was pushing back against our thesis of how the market was to perform in this last month of the quarter (eg. digestion of early year gains). The state of the energy market and the impact of the cost of borrowing/value of the dollar remain key risks to the market, something that continues to be scrutinized. Subscribers can view the themes in our chart books to either Accumulate or Avoid that we continue to gear portfolios towards.
Today, in our Market Outlook to subscribers, we discuss the following:
- US Durable Goods Orders and the investment implications within
- Our list of highest conviction sectors for the month of July (the summer rally period)
- The above average trend of Jobless Claims and the health of the labor market
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Sentiment on Thursday, as gauged by the put-call ratio, ended close to Neutral at 0.98.
Seasonal charts of companies reporting earnings today:
S&P 500 Index
TSE Composite
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