Stock Market Outlook for July 15, 2026
What June’s CPI report has to say about how to position portfolios for the back half of the year.
*** Stocks highlighted are for information purposes only and should not be considered as advice to purchase or to sell mentioned securities. As always, the use of technical and fundamental analysis is encouraged in order to fine tune entry and exit points to average seasonal trends.
Stocks Entering Period of Seasonal Strength Today:
Subscribers Click on the relevant link to view the full profile. Not a subscriber? Signup here.
Stock Highlight: |
|
Watts Water Technologies, Inc. (NYSE:WTS) Seasonal Chart |
|
Regions Financial Corp. (NYSE:RF) Seasonal Chart
Bank of Montreal (TSE:BMO.TO) Seasonal Chart
iShares U.S. Infrastructure ETF (AMEX:IFRA) Seasonal Chart
Dividend Select 15 Corp (TSE:DS.TO) Seasonal Chart
KP Tissue Inc. (TSE:KPT.TO) Seasonal Chart
BMO Aggregate Bond Index ETF (TSE:ZAG.TO) Seasonal Chart
iShares Agency Bond ETF (NYSE:AGZ) Seasonal Chart
WisdomTree Earnings 500 Fund (NYSE:EPS) Seasonal Chart
iShares Global Financials ETF (NYSE:IXG) Seasonal Chart
VanEck Long Muni ETF (NYSE:MLN) Seasonal Chart
Invesco BuyBack Achievers ETF (NASD:PKW) Seasonal Chart
Vanguard Intermediate-Term Government Bond ETF (NASD:VGIT) Seasonal Chart
Disclaimer: Comments and opinions offered in this report are for information only. They should not be considered as advice to purchase or to sell mentioned securities. Data offered is believed to be accurate, but is not guaranteed.
The Markets
Stocks clawed back from losses recorded in the prior session as a larger than expected decline in consumer prices alleviated concerns pertaining to the state of inflation in the economy. The S&P 500 Index gained just less than four-tenths of one percent, still holding above declining trendline resistance from the month of June. Short-term trading range resistance at 7550 is being tested, currently standing in the way of a move towards 7675 that the technicals have been expressing as a target once the span is violated. Support on the daily chart is being maintained at 20 and 50-day moving averages (~7447), which have converged on one another in a bearish manner. Daily momentum indicators started to curl higher in recent days, triggering near-term buy signals that aligned nicely with the start of the summer rally phase, but they are starting to show sluggish performance as investors digest the geopolitical risk. In the Seasonal Advantage Portfolio that we manage for clients at CastleMoore, we remain positioned for this summer rally phase that began on June 27th (S&P 500 Index is strongly higher, above the seasonal norm, since that point). Following a first half performance in the Seasonal Advantage Portfolio that was well ahead of our own benchmark (as well as all major equity benchmarks in the market), we are still anticipating strength for the start of the second half of the year, but we are scrutinizing the risks that have abruptly escalated with the increase in geopolitical tensions. The start of earnings season provides some cover to the headline threats. Subscribers can view what we are targeting in our list of market segments to either Accumulate or Avoid.
Today, in our Market Outlook to subscribers, we discuss the following:
- Health Care stocks: What to take and what to turn away from
- US Consumer Price Index (CPI) and the investment implications within
- The cost of borrowing and the start of the optimal holding period for the bond market
Subscribers can look for this report in their inbox or by clicking on the following link and logging in: Market Outlook for July 15
Not signed up yet? Subscribe now to receive full access to all of the research and analysis that we publish
Sentiment on Tuesday, as gauged by the put-call ratio, ended bullish at 0.86.
Seasonal charts of companies reporting earnings today:
S&P 500 Index
TSE Composite
| Sponsored By... |
|
