Stock Market Outlook for July 28, 2026
Industrial stocks showing renewed demand.
*** Stocks highlighted are for information purposes only and should not be considered as advice to purchase or to sell mentioned securities. As always, the use of technical and fundamental analysis is encouraged in order to fine tune entry and exit points to average seasonal trends.
Stocks Entering Period of Seasonal Strength Today:
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Stock Highlight: |
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DuPont de Nemours, Inc. (NYSE:DD) Seasonal Chart |
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National Bank of Canada (TSE:NA.TO) Seasonal Chart
Purpose Core Dividend Fund (TSE:PDF.TO) Seasonal Chart
Axis Capital Holdings Ltd. (NYSE:AXS) Seasonal Chart
iShares Edge MSCI Min Vol Canada Index ETF (TSE:XMV.TO) Seasonal Chart
BMO Canadian Dividend ETF (TSE:ZDV.TO) Seasonal Chart
Disclaimer: Comments and opinions offered in this report are for information only. They should not be considered as advice to purchase or to sell mentioned securities. Data offered is believed to be accurate, but is not guaranteed.
The Markets
A pause in the fighting in the Middle East produced a mixed result in the equity market on Monday as the price of oil traded lower, providing a bit of a reprieve in selling pressures among consumer stocks. The S&P 500 Index was essentially unchanged again, remaining below the lower limit of the short-term trading range between 7425 and 7550. Another attempt was made to fill Thursday’s downside gap between 7450 and 7500, but the bulls just can’t seem to coordinate the move without a more substantial catalyst. The resolution of the prevailing trading range proposes a move of 125-points in the direction of break, or to 7300. While we have to adopt this downbeat target as the base case, we have seen a false break of the span before (albeit to the upside) that ultimately reversed. The uncertainty surrounding the conflict between the US and Iran may be too burdensome this time around. Support on the daily chart has been broken around 20 and 50-day moving averages (~7471), which have converged on one another in a bearish manner. Daily momentum indicators have rolled over in recent days with MACD triggering a fresh sell signal, now aligning with the end of the summer rally period that came to an end on July 17th. In the Seasonal Advantage Portfolio that we manage for clients at CastleMoore, we have not made any changes in our allocations, yet. Following a first half performance in the Seasonal Advantage Portfolio that was well ahead of our own benchmark (as well as all major equity benchmarks in the market), we still have a bias to expect strength for the start of the second half of the year, aligning with the optimism that the manufacturing economy is expressing, but we are scrutinizing the risks that have abruptly escalated with the increase in geopolitical tensions. We continue to view earnings season as providing some cover to the headline threats. Subscribers can view what we are targeting in our list of market segments to either Accumulate or Avoid.
Want to know which areas of the market to buy or sell? Our Weekly Chart Books have just been updated, providing a clear Accumulate, Avoid, or Neutral rating for currencies, cryptocurrencies, commodities, broad markets, and subsectors/industries of the market. Subscribers can login and click on the relevant links to access.
- Currencies
- Cryptocurrencies
- Commodities
- Major Benchmarks
- Sub-sectors / Industries
- ETFs: Bonds | Commodities | Equity Markets | Industries | Sectors
Today, in our Market Outlook to subscribers, we discuss the following:
- Our weekly chart books update, along with our list of all segments of the market to either Accumulate or Avoid
- Other Notes
Subscribers can look for this report in their inbox or by clicking on the following link and logging in: Market Outlook for July 28
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Sentiment on Monday, as gauged by the put-call ratio, ended bullish at 0.91.
Seasonal charts of companies reporting earnings today:
S&P 500 Index
TSE Composite
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