Stock Market Outlook for August 18, 2023
Manufacturer sentiment in Philadelphia has surprisingly flipped to show optimism during this normal retail stocking period ahead of the holiday shopping season.
*** Stocks highlighted are for information purposes only and should not be considered as advice to purchase or to sell mentioned securities. As always, the use of technical and fundamental analysis is encouraged in order to fine tune entry and exit points to average seasonal trends.
Stocks Entering Period of Seasonal Strength Today:
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Freeport-McMoRan, Inc. (NYSE:FCX) Seasonal Chart
iShares S&P Global Consumer Discretionary Index ETF (CAD-Hedged) (TSE:XCD.TO) Seasonal Chart
Vanguard S&P Small-Cap 600 Value ETF (NYSE:VIOV) Seasonal Chart
Ivanhoe Mines Ltd. (TSE:IVN.TO) Seasonal Chart
Canadian Banc Recovery Corp. (TSE:BK.TO) Seasonal Chart
iShares Russell 2000 Value ETF (NYSE:IWN) Seasonal Chart
Host Hotels & Resorts Inc. (NYSE:HST) Seasonal Chart
International Game Tech (NYSE:IGT) Seasonal Chart
Southwest Airlines Co. (NYSE:LUV) Seasonal Chart
HudBay Minerals Inc. (TSE:HBM.TO) Seasonal Chart
Macerich Co. (NYSE:MAC) Seasonal Chart
DuPont de Nemours, Inc. (NYSE:DD) Seasonal Chart
Ryanair Holdings PLC (NASD:RYAAY) Seasonal Chart
The Markets
Stocks continued to weaken on Thursday as investors monitored the ongoing rise of interest rates to new multi-year heights. The S&P 500 Index closed higher by just over three-quarters of one percent, continuing to make progress below intermediate support at its 50-day moving average. Resistance remains embedded at the declining 20-day moving average, now at 4506. Momentum indicators, including the Relative Strength Index (RSI) and MACD, are moving further below their middle lines, relinquishing characteristics of a bullish trend that have persisted since March. Levels down to previous resistance, now support, at 4200 remain fair game as part of this normal period of volatility/weakness in the market that spans the months of August and September and, for now, the equity market is not expected to lose its rising intermediate-term path that has been adopted since the lows set last October.
Today, in our Market Outlook to subscribers, we discuss the following:
- The abrupt decline in the stocks of the home builders and the plateauing of the rise of housing starts
- Weekly jobless claims and the health of the labor market
- Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index
- Natural Gas stockpiles and the seasonal trade in the commodity
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Sentiment on Thursday, as gauged by the put-call ratio, ended bearish at 1.13.
Seasonal charts of companies reporting earnings today: 
S&P 500 Index
TSE Composite
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