Stock Market Outlook for October 25, 2024
Palladium, an Accumulate candidate, is surging above a bottoming pattern as its period of seasonal strength gets underway.
*** Stocks highlighted are for information purposes only and should not be considered as advice to purchase or to sell mentioned securities. As always, the use of technical and fundamental analysis is encouraged in order to fine tune entry and exit points to average seasonal trends.
Stocks Entering Period of Seasonal Strength Today:
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Japan Equity Fund, Inc. (NYSE:JEQ) Seasonal Chart
TIM S.A (NYSE:TIMB) Seasonal Chart
Skeena Resources Limited (TSE:SKE.TO) Seasonal Chart
iShares U.S. Regional Banks ETF (NYSE:IAT) Seasonal Chart
Ball Corp. (NYSE:BALL) Seasonal Chart
Invesco S&P 500 Equal Weight ETF (TSE:EQL.TO) Seasonal Chart
Utz Brands, Inc. (NYSE:UTZ) Seasonal Chart
Comerica, Inc. (NYSE:CMA) Seasonal Chart
Equifax, Inc. (NYSE:EFX) Seasonal Chart
Hormel Foods Corp. (NYSE:HRL) Seasonal Chart
Fairfax Financial Holdings Ltd. (TSE:FFH.TO) Seasonal Chart
Marinemax, Inc. (NYSE:HZO) Seasonal Chart
MaxLinear Inc. (NASD:MXL) Seasonal Chart
Comcast Corp. (NASD:CMCSA) Seasonal Chart
Super Micro Computer, Inc (NASD:SMCI) Seasonal Chart
Toyota Motor Corp. (NYSE:TM) Seasonal Chart
Stratus Properties, Inc. (NASD:STRS) Seasonal Chart
iShares U.S. Broker-Dealers & Securities Exchanges ETF (NYSE:IAI) Seasonal Chart
The Markets
Stocks ended marginally higher on Thursday as a strong reaction to earnings from Tesla (TSLA) buoyed consumer discretionary stocks during the session. The S&P 500 Index closed higher by just over two-tenths of one percent, showing positive reaction to short term support at the rising 20-day moving average (5787). In recent days, the benchmark has shown a cap at 5870, resulting in an ultra-short-term topping pattern that projects a downside target of 5745. Despite the recent stall, this market is showing greater evidence of support than resistance, a characteristic of a bullish trend. What is concerning to the prevailing path is the waning of upside momentum, something that we have seen more evidence of with another MACD sell signal in the past day; the momentum indicator has shown a negative divergence versus price through the current calendar year, highlighting the fading enthusiasm towards the risk profile that equities encompass. The risk-reward, broadly, remains unattractive. We continue to like the groups that are on our growing list of Accumulate candidates, but there are certainly segments of the market to Avoid. The start of the best six months of the year for stocks is slated to begin next week and there is a need from a seasonal perspective to ramp up risk exposure at some point.
Today, in our Market Outlook to subscribers, we discuss the following:
- Weekly Jobless Claims and the health of the labor market
- US New Home Sales and the seasonal trade in the builders
- Forestry stocks
- The seasonal trade in Natural Gas
- The jump in the price of Palladium as its period of seasonal strength gets underway
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Sentiment on Thursday, as gauged by the put-call ratio, ended bullish at 0.86.
Seasonal charts of companies reporting earnings today:
S&P 500 Index
TSE Composite
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