Stock Market Outlook for September 30, 2026
Performing a deep dive on the prospects for Gold as rates and dollar pressures weigh.
*** Stocks highlighted are for information purposes only and should not be considered as advice to purchase or to sell mentioned securities. As always, the use of technical and fundamental analysis is encouraged in order to fine tune entry and exit points to average seasonal trends.
Stocks Entering Period of Seasonal Strength Today:
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YPF Sociedad Anonima (NYSE:YPF) Seasonal Chart
NLIndustries, Inc. (NYSE:NL) Seasonal Chart
Disclaimer: Comments and opinions offered in this report are for information only. They should not be considered as advice to purchase or to sell mentioned securities. Data offered is believed to be accurate, but is not guaranteed.
The Markets
Stocks essentially meandered around the flat-line on Tuesday as traders continued to monitor the trajectory of the cost of borrowing. The S&P 500 Index slipped by nearly two-tenths of one percent, holding the upside open gap (a zone of support) charted a week ago Monday between 7650 and 7690. Previous resistance remains as implied support at 7620. The moves in the past couple of days certainly cloud the contention of the start of a new ultra-short-term rising trend following the declining path that has been charted since the middle of August. Ultimately, more of the same consolidation that the benchmark has been subjected to for months continues. Historically, this is the most volatile period for equity performance that spans the last two weeks of September, therefore heightened caution has been appropriate, but we have been pushing back against the negativity that is typical for this timeframe (see our September 18th report). We continue to examine what may be the appropriate stance in equity positioning for the month of October. In the Seasonal Advantage Portfolio that we manage for clients at CastleMoore, we continue to be fully allocated to stocks, aligning with the optimism that the manufacturing economy is expressing, but we are looking at how we are going to react when the calendar flips to the new month; today, we are taking action in the Super Simple Seasonal Portfolio to reign in risk. Subscribers can stay on top of our thinking and what we are watching in our regular reports, as well as view what we are targeting in our list of market segments to either Accumulate or Avoid.
Today, in our Market Outlook to subscribers, we discuss the following:
- Deep dive into the influences that are driving the price of Gold and what it may take to re-entice buyers
- Yields and dollar testing resistance
- Signs of upside exhaustion in the price of Oil continue to be observed
- Hot economic data leading to a cold reception once September data is released?
- High Yield spreads perking up
- The action we are taking in the Super Simple Seasonal Portfolio
- US Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS) and the investment implications within
Subscribers can look for this report in their inbox or by clicking on the following link and logging in: Market Outlook for September 30
Sentiment on Tuesday, as gauged by the put-call ratio, ended bullish at 0.86.
Seasonal charts of companies reporting earnings today:
S&P 500 Index
TSE Composite
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