Equity Clock

Stock Market Outlook for July 23, 2026

The change in margin debt is suggesting a risk to the market should leverage be forced to unwind.

*** Stocks highlighted are for information purposes only and should not be considered as advice to purchase or to sell mentioned securities. As always, the use of technical and fundamental analysis is encouraged in order to fine tune entry and exit points to average seasonal trends.

Stocks Entering Period of Seasonal Strength Today:

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Stock Highlight:
Benz Mining Corp. (TSXV:BZ.V) Seasonal Chart	Optimal holding period from July 23th to October 15th The stock is curling higher from support at its 50-week moving average (1.89), resuming a long-term rising trend The period of strength for Gold tends to bode well for the stock through the third quarter

The Travelers Cos., Inc. (NYSE:TRV) Seasonal Chart

WisdomTree Barclays U.S. Aggregate Bond Zero Duration Fund (NASD:AGZD) Seasonal Chart

South State Corp. (NYSE:SSB) Seasonal Chart

iShares Canadian Value Index ETF (TSE:XCV.TO) Seasonal Chart

Vanguard Total Bond Market ETF (NASD:BND) Seasonal Chart

iShares MBS ETF (NASD:MBB) Seasonal Chart

ProShares Merger ETF (AMEX:MRGR) Seasonal Chart

Invesco DB US Dollar Index Bullish Fund (NYSE:UUP) Seasonal Chart

Disclaimer: Comments and opinions offered in this report are for information only. They should not be considered as advice to purchase or to sell mentioned securities. Data offered is believed to be accurate, but is not guaranteed.

The Markets

Upside pressures in the price of oil and the cost of borrowing (interest rates) kept stocks under wraps during the Wednesday session.  The S&P 500 Index shed around a tenth of one percent, continuing to play by the limits of the short-term trading range between 7425 and 7550.  A resolution of the span proposes a move of 125-points in the direction of break, either to 7675 or 7300.  Support on the daily chart is being maintained around 20 and 50-day moving averages (~7471), which have converged on one another in a bearish manner. Daily momentum indicators have rolled over in recent days with MACD triggering a fresh sell signal, now aligning with the end of the summer rally period that came to an end on July 17th.  In the Seasonal Advantage Portfolio that we manage for clients at CastleMoore, we remain positioned in a bullish manner.  Following a first half performance in the Seasonal Advantage Portfolio that was well ahead of our own benchmark (as well as all major equity benchmarks in the market), we are still anticipating strength for the start of the second half of the year, despite the recent uptick in volatility, but we are scrutinizing the risks that have abruptly escalated with the increase in geopolitical tensions.  The start of earnings season provides some cover to the headline threats.  Subscribers can view what we are targeting in our list of market segments to either Accumulate or Avoid.

Today, in our Market Outlook to subscribers, we discuss the following:

• The rise of margin debt
• Energy supply and demand fundamentals
• Energy stocks

Subscribers can look for this report in their inbox or by clicking on the following link and logging in: Market Outlook for July 23

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Sentiment on Wednesday, as gauged by the put-call ratio, ended bullish at 0.94.

Seasonal charts of companies reporting earnings today:

S&P 500 Index

TSE Composite

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