Stock Market Outlook for September 11, 2026
Interest rates the elephant in the room in the economy and the equity market.
*** Stocks highlighted are for information purposes only and should not be considered as advice to purchase or to sell mentioned securities. As always, the use of technical and fundamental analysis is encouraged in order to fine tune entry and exit points to average seasonal trends.
Stocks Entering Period of Seasonal Strength Today:
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Stock Highlight: |
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Methanex Corp. (NASD:MEOH) Seasonal Chart |
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Houlihan Lokey, Inc. (NYSE:HLI) Seasonal Chart
Azenta, Inc. (NASD:AZTA) Seasonal Chart
Manulife Financial Corp. (TSE:MFC.TO) Seasonal Chart
General Motors Co. (NYSE:GM) Seasonal Chart
Chevron Corp. (NYSE:CVX) Seasonal Chart
Disclaimer: Comments and opinions offered in this report are for information only. They should not be considered as advice to purchase or to sell mentioned securities. Data offered is believed to be accurate, but is not guaranteed.
The Markets
Surging oil prices and interest rates worked to weigh on stocks for a fourth straight session, threatening the intermediate-term technical profile of the market heading into the period of seasonal volatility for stocks during the back half of September The S&P 500 Index shed around six-tenths of one percent, cracking below previous resistance in what was supposed to be support at 7620. As highlighted in our September 2nd report, next level of support below 7620 can be pegged at the mid-July highs around 7575, a break of which would start to invalidate the short-term bull-flag pattern that we have been highlighting in recent weeks. The 50-day moving average (~7603) was cracked during the session, violating yet another important line in the sand that was keeping the short-to-intermediate-term trend of the market on a positive slope. Historically, the most volatile period for equity performance in the year is just days away, therefore heightened caution is becoming appropriate. In the Seasonal Advantage Portfolio that we manage for clients at CastleMoore, we continue to hold an elevated exposure to stocks, aligning with the optimism that the manufacturing economy is expressing, but our patience is growing thin and we may need to adjust should the persistency of headwinds against stocks (outside of energy) endure. Subscribers can view what we are targeting in our list of market segments to either Accumulate or Avoid.
Today, in our Market Outlook to subscribers, we discuss the following:
- Rise in Oil and Interest Rates above significant thresholds
- Breakdown in bond prices
- Small Caps
- Banks stocks
- Sell Rosh Hashanah and Buy Yom Kippur
- US Existing Home Sales
- Weekly Jobless Claims and the health of the labor market
Subscribers can look for this report in their inbox or by clicking on the following link and logging in: Market Outlook for September 11
Sentiment on Thursday, as gauged by the put-call ratio, ended bullish at 0.85.
Seasonal charts of companies reporting earnings today:
S&P 500 Index
TSE Composite
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