Stock Market Outlook for August 19, 2026
The fundamentals to the AI trade remain strong, but rates are a pressure point.
*** Stocks highlighted are for information purposes only and should not be considered as advice to purchase or to sell mentioned securities. As always, the use of technical and fundamental analysis is encouraged in order to fine tune entry and exit points to average seasonal trends.
Stocks Entering Period of Seasonal Strength Today:
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Stock Highlight: |
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Sprott Physical Uranium Trust (TSE:U/UN.TO) Seasonal Chart |
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Fastly, Inc. (NYSE:FSLY) Seasonal Chart
TotalEnergies SE (NYSE:TTE) Seasonal Chart
Vanguard Russell 2000 Value ETF (NASD:VTWV) Seasonal Chart
Ivanhoe Mines Ltd. (TSE:IVN.TO) Seasonal Chart
The Bank of Nova Scotia (NYSE:BNS) Seasonal Chart
Host Hotels & Resorts Inc. (NASD:HST) Seasonal Chart
Disclaimer: Comments and opinions offered in this report are for information only. They should not be considered as advice to purchase or to sell mentioned securities. Data offered is believed to be accurate, but is not guaranteed.
The Markets
Further strength in the price of oil and the cost of borrowing (interest rates) drew traders out of technology stocks and pushed them into energy and health care allocations on Tuesday. The S&P 500 Index slipped by nearly seven-tenths of one percent, continuing to hold above the consolidation span that the benchmark had been within since the start of June between 7250 and 7620; previous resistance at this upper threshold now turns into support. A short-term bull-flag pattern continues to be charted, suggesting further upside to be expected, although it is looking like a retracement towards aforementioned previous resistance at 7620 will be fulfilled first. The benchmark remains above 20 and 50-day moving averages (~7521), keeping the ball in the bulls court heading through the middle of August. Daily momentum indicators have started to roll over, but they are retaining characteristics of a bullish trend above their middle lines. In the Seasonal Advantage Portfolio that we manage for clients at CastleMoore, we continue to hold an elevated exposure to stocks, aligning with the optimism that the manufacturing economy is expressing. The period of volatility in the equity market through the weeks ahead could start to impose some erratic results (as is presently being seen), but there is some leeway on the calendar before the peak period of weakness rolls around starting in the middle of September. Subscribers can view what we are targeting in our list of market segments to either Accumulate or Avoid.
Today, in our Market Outlook to subscribers, we discuss the following:
- An abrupt drawdown in many on the AI plays
- The rise in the cost of borrowing
- Bond funds trapped in a range
- The selloff in South Korean equities
- US Industrial Production and the investment implications within
- Manufacturer sentiment
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Sentiment on Tuesday, as gauged by the put-call ratio, ended close to neutral at 0.97.
Seasonal charts of companies reporting earnings today:
S&P 500 Index
TSE Composite
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