Stock Market Outlook for November 4, 2026
Credit market likely to provide the cue for stocks following the midterm election.
*** Stocks highlighted are for information purposes only and should not be considered as advice to purchase or to sell mentioned securities. As always, the use of technical and fundamental analysis is encouraged in order to fine tune entry and exit points to average seasonal trends.
Stocks Entering Period of Seasonal Strength Today:
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Clorox Co. (NYSE:CLX) Seasonal Chart
Haverty Furniture Cos., Inc. (NYSE:HVT) Seasonal Chart
Global X Uranium ETF (NYSE:URA) Seasonal Chart
Datadog Inc. (NASD:DDOG) Seasonal Chart
Disclaimer: Comments and opinions offered in this report are for information only. They should not be considered as advice to purchase or to sell mentioned securities. Data offered is believed to be accurate, but is not guaranteed.
The Markets
An alleviation of recent weakness in the Technology sector ahead of the midterm election allowed broad market benchmarks to close in the green on Tuesday. The S&P 500 Index ended with a gain of just less than four-tenths of one percent, continuing to trade below resistance at the lower limit of the previous multi-month trading range between 7620 and 7800. The lower bound represents the neckline of a head-and-shoulders pattern on the hourly chart, a bearish setup that projects a theoretical downside target of 7400, or back to levels around the summer lows. An ultra-short-term trend of lower-lows and lower-highs persists. The sloppiness of the tape in recent weeks and the concerns that the credit market were showing suggested that the market was vulnerable, despite being at a major turning point in the seasonal timeline from weakness to strength in stocks for the next six months. 20 and 50-day moving averages are no longer defining support and, for the first time since March, the benchmark is trading below its 100-day moving average. As noted in our recent chart books, there are segments following recent price action that we no longer want to be exposed to, but the market has provided rotation opportunities that allow us to maintain our overall equity exposure. Members can stay on top of our thinking and what we are watching in our regular reports, as well as view what we are targeting in our list of market segments to either Accumulate or Avoid
Today, in our Market Outlook to subscribers, we discuss the following:
- Electrification stocks
- Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS) and the investment implications within
- Bank stocks and the cues for stocks following the midterm election
- Additional Thoughts (Lack of portfolio hedging on election day, Junk Bonds below 50-week moving averages, US Factory Orders, AMD seasonality)
Subscribers can look for this report in their inbox or by clicking on the following link and logging in: Market Outlook for November 4
Sentiment on Tuesday, as gauged by the put-call ratio, ended bullish at 0.86.
Seasonal charts of companies reporting earnings today:
S&P 500 Index
TSE Composite
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