Risk aversion bubbling up in the market on cue for the back half of May.

Stock Market Outlook for May 26, 2026

Risk aversion bubbling up in the market on cue for the back half of May.

Real Time Economic Calendar provided by Investing.com.

*** Stocks highlighted are for information purposes only and should not be considered as advice to purchase or to sell mentioned securities. As always, the use of technical and fundamental analysis is encouraged in order to fine tune entry and exit points to average seasonal trends.

Stocks Entering Period of Seasonal Strength Today:

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Stock Highlight:

Equity Residential Property Trust (NYSE:EQR) Seasonal Chart

Optimal holding period from May 25th to September 6th
In the past month, the stock broken above long-term declining trendline resistance after deriving double-bottom support at 57. Stop loss appropriate at the 50-week moving average of 62.
Revenue and Free Cash Flow for this REIT company have shown year-over-year gains. The rise in interest rates remains the obvious threat against this sector, but the price action has shown resilience, thus far.

Cloudflare Inc. (NYSE:NET) Seasonal Chart

Amplify Online Retail ETF (AMEX:IBUY) Seasonal Chart

Advantage Solutions Inc. (NASD:ADV) Seasonal Chart

Paylocity Holding Corp. (NASD:PCTY) Seasonal Chart

Carvana Co. (NYSE:CVNA) Seasonal Chart

Yeti Holdings Inc. (NYSE:YETI) Seasonal Chart

Global Net Lease, Inc. (NYSE:GNL) Seasonal Chart

Alibaba Group Holding Ltd. (NYSE:BABA) Seasonal Chart

VFCorp (NYSE:VFC) Seasonal Chart

Iron Mountain, Inc. (NYSE:IRM) Seasonal Chart

Boston Beer Co. Cl A (NYSE:SAM) Seasonal Chart

IAMGOLD Corp. (NYSE:IAG) Seasonal Chart

TransAct Technologies, Inc. (NASD:TACT) Seasonal Chart

PayPal Holdings, Inc. (NASD:PYPL) Seasonal Chart

Disclaimer: Comments and opinions offered in this report are for information only. They should not be considered as advice to purchase or to sell mentioned securities. Data offered is believed to be accurate, but is not guaranteed.

Note: ‘Tis the Season for May long weekends. Our schedule will be disrupted again in the days ahead with the Memorial Day long weekend. As a result, there will be no report published on Monday and our weekly chartbook updates will be released on Tuesday. If you are celebrating this weekend, enjoy and we will catch-up with you next week. Stay on top of our social media (@EquityClock on X, StockTwits, Reddit, Instagram, and Bluesky) for any commentary/important developments in the interim.

The Markets

Upbeat sentiment heading into the Memorial Day holiday kept equity markets afloat during the Friday session. The S&P 500 Index closed higher by just less than four-tenths of one percent, staying elevated above short-term horizontal support at 7340. A breakdown below this threshold would project a move back towards the upper limit of the end of April consolidation span around 7150. While the character of the market remains where levels of resistance hold less weight than levels of support, there are certainly fractures around the periphery as breadth in the market narrows. A daily MACD sell signal was triggered with Tuesday’s drawdown, closing a long trade with respect to this momentum indicator that began at the start of April. In the Seasonal Advantage Portfolio that we manage for clients at CastleMoore, we continue to hit new high watermarks, even as the broader market digests its gains, and we have prepared for a more volatile/risk-off market framework for the back half of May; this risk aversion is materializing, benefiting our performance. The conflict in Iran is the ongoing wildcard and some of the cues that we have been following that would warrant moving towards a more defensive posture in risk assets have triggered in recent weeks. Subscribers can view the themes in our chart books to either Accumulate or Avoid that we continue to gear portfolios towards.

Today, in our Market Outlook to subscribers, we discuss the following:

Weekly look at the large-cap benchmark

Risk aversion materializing on cue

Investment manager and individual investor positioning

Canadian retail sales and what it has to say about investments in consumer stocks

A deep dive into the Canadian equity market, including the interesting developments in Canadian Technology (Shopify, Constellation Software, Celestica)

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