Stock Market Outlook for June 4, 2026
Growth fading relative to value heading into the mean-reverting month of June.
*** Stocks highlighted are for information purposes only and should not be considered as advice to purchase or to sell mentioned securities. As always, the use of technical and fundamental analysis is encouraged in order to fine tune entry and exit points to average seasonal trends.
Stocks Entering Period of Seasonal Strength Today:
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PagerDuty Inc. (NYSE:PD) Seasonal Chart |
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Principal U.S. Mega-Cap Multi-Factor Index ETF (NASD:USMC) Seasonal Chart
Disclaimer: Comments and opinions offered in this report are for information only. They should not be considered as advice to purchase or to sell mentioned securities. Data offered is believed to be accurate, but is not guaranteed.
The Markets
Stocks dipped on Wednesday as traders took profits in some of the hot technology trades of recent weeks. The S&P 500 Index shed nearly three-quarters of one percent, trading below the lower limit of the narrowing rising span that that we have highlighted in recent days. The conclusion to the narrowing rising span presents the prospect of seeing a retracement of a large portion of the grind higher in the past couple of weeks. While the character of the market remains where levels of resistance hold less weight than levels of support, there are certainly fractures around the periphery as breadth in the market narrows. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) has moved out of overbought territory above 70 as questions arise to the near-term upside momentum from here. In the Seasonal Advantage Portfolio that we manage for clients at CastleMoore, we continue to hit new high watermarks (even through the middle of this week) and we have prepared for a more volatile/risk-off market framework (which admittedly has dampened our performance in the tech-led euphoria of recent weeks). The conflict/deal in Iran is the ongoing wildcard and the cues that we have been following that warranted moving towards a more defensive posture in risk assets have not gone away (and, arguably, our thesis was reconfirmed on Monday). Subscribers can view the themes in our chart books to either Accumulate or Avoid that we continue to gear portfolios towards.
Today, in our Market Outlook to subscribers, we discuss the following:
- Growth pausing relative to Value
- US Vehicle Sales and the investment implications within (TSLA)
- Energy supply and demand fundamentals heading into this summer’s driving season and how to play the backdrop
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Sentiment on on Wednesday, as gauged by the put-call ratio, ended bullish at 0.80.
Seasonal charts of companies reporting earnings today:
S&P 500 Index
TSE Composite
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