Stock Market Outlook for July 29, 2026
The manufacturing economy is booming and this has important implications for stocks.
*** Stocks highlighted are for information purposes only and should not be considered as advice to purchase or to sell mentioned securities. As always, the use of technical and fundamental analysis is encouraged in order to fine tune entry and exit points to average seasonal trends.
Stocks Entering Period of Seasonal Strength Today:
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Stock Highlight: |
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Quaker Chemical Corp. (NYSE:KWR) Seasonal Chart |
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RBC Quant U.S. Dividend Leaders ETF (TSE:RUD.TO) Seasonal Chart
BMO MSCI USA High Quality Index ETF (TSE:ZUQ.TO) Seasonal Chart
Invesco Canadian Dividend Index ETF (TSE:PDC.TO) Seasonal Chart
RBC Quant Canadian Dividend Leaders ETF (TSE:RCD.TO) Seasonal Chart
Home Bancorp, Inc. (NASD:HBCP) Seasonal Chart
Cimpress NV (NASD:CMPR) Seasonal Chart
J&J Snack Foods Corp. (NASD:JJSF) Seasonal Chart
Disclaimer: Comments and opinions offered in this report are for information only. They should not be considered as advice to purchase or to sell mentioned securities. Data offered is believed to be accurate, but is not guaranteed.
The Markets
A decline in the cost of borrowing, coinciding with the pullback in the price of Oil, allowed stocks to catch a bid on Tuesday, despite further weakness in the AI infrastructure trade (Semiconductors, Memory, Electrification). The S&P 500 Index ticked higher by two-tenths of one percent, inching back within the short-term trading range between 7425 and 7550. Ultra-short-term support has been pegged at 7375. Neither the bulls nor the bears have been able to take the benchmark much beyond the previous span, which has proposed a downside risk to 7300 or upside reward to 7675. Ultimately, it all comes down to the resolution to the consolidation span in the bond market and investors in this group will be eager to react when the Fed delivers their next statement on Wednesday. Support on the daily chart has been broken around 20 and 50-day moving averages (~7470), which have converged on one another in a bearish manner. Daily momentum indicators have rolled over in recent days with MACD triggering a fresh sell signal, now aligning with the end of the summer rally period that came to an end on July 17th. In the Seasonal Advantage Portfolio that we manage for clients at CastleMoore, we have not made any changes in our allocations, yet. Following a first half performance in the Seasonal Advantage Portfolio that was well ahead of our own benchmark (as well as all major equity benchmarks in the market), we still have a bias to expect strength for the start of the second half of the year, aligning with the optimism that the manufacturing economy is expressing, but we are scrutinizing the risks that have abruptly escalated with the increase in geopolitical tensions. We continue to view earnings season as providing some cover to the headline threats. Subscribers can view what we are targeting in our list of market segments to either Accumulate or Avoid.
Today, in our Market Outlook to subscribers, we discuss the following:
- US Durable Goods Orders and the investment implications within
- Downside risks for key AI darlings: MU, SNDK, NVDA, INTC, LITE, AMD, DELL, GEV
- Industrial Machinery and the stocks with enticing setups
- Shipping activity in the US and transportation stocks
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Sentiment on Tuesday, as gauged by the put-call ratio, ended slightly bullish at 0.93.
Seasonal charts of companies reporting earnings today:
S&P 500 Index
TSE Composite
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