Stock Market Outlook for October 5, 2026
The Volatility Index remains on a declining trajectory heading into what is traditionally the most volatile time of the year for stocks.
*** Stocks highlighted are for information purposes only and should not be considered as advice to purchase or to sell mentioned securities. As always, the use of technical and fundamental analysis is encouraged in order to fine tune entry and exit points to average seasonal trends.
Stocks Entering Period of Seasonal Strength Today:
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Stock Highlight: |
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Freeport-McMoRan, Inc. (NYSE:FCX) Seasonal Chart |
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CRA International, Inc. (NASD:CRAI) Seasonal Chart
Materials Select Sector SPDR Fund (NYSE:XLB) Seasonal Chart
SunCoke Energy Inc. (NYSE:SXC) Seasonal Chart
PDF Solutions, Inc. (NASD:PDFS) Seasonal Chart
Applied Materials, Inc. (NASD:AMAT) Seasonal Chart
Axon Enterprise, Inc. (NASD:AXON) Seasonal Chart
SPDR S&P Metals and Mining ETF (NYSE:XME) Seasonal Chart
iShares Transportation Average ETF (NYSE:IYT) Seasonal Chart
HudBay Minerals Inc. (TSE:HBM.TO) Seasonal Chart
Companhia Vale do Rio Doce SA (NYSE:VALE) Seasonal Chart
Chorus Aviation, Inc. (TSE:CHR.TO) Seasonal Chart
Disclaimer: Comments and opinions offered in this report are for information only. They should not be considered as advice to purchase or to sell mentioned securities. Data offered is believed to be accurate, but is not guaranteed.
The Markets
Stocks jumped on Friday as a much weaker than expected (and weaker than average) employment report for September had investors reconsidering their rate expectations for the upcoming FOMC meeting. The S&P 500 Index closed higher by around three-quarters of one percent, opening another gap around the range of the gap charted a week ago Monday between 7650 and 7690. The span is proving to be a significant pivot point to the market, along with previous resistance at 7620, a threshold tested at the lows of Thursday’s session.The broader trading range that the benchmark has been in since August between 7620 and 7800 persists. While beyond what has historically been the weakest two-week stretch of the year at the end of September, volatility in the market tends to remain heightened into the month of October, therefore caution has been appropriate, but we have been pushing back against the negativity that is typical for this timeframe (see our September 18th report). We continue to examine what may be the appropriate stance in equity positioning for the month of October, but we have started to de-risk in our Super Simple Seasonal Portfolio (trimming our commodity/oil exposure). Subscribers can stay on top of our thinking and what we are watching in our regular reports, as well as view what we are targeting in our list of market segments to either Accumulate or Avoid.
Today, in our Market Outlook to subscribers, we discuss the following:
- Weekly look at the large-cap benchmark
- Scrutinizing market breadth
- Volatility continues to buck seasonal norms
- US Employment Situation and the investment implications within
- Additional Thoughts (Factory Orders, Transportation stocks)
Subscribers can look for this report in their inbox or by clicking on the following link and logging in: Market Outlook for October 5
Sentiment on Friday, as gauged by the put-call ratio, ended bullish at 0.78.
Seasonal charts of companies reporting earnings today:
- No significant earnings for today.
S&P 500 Index
TSE Composite
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