Stock Market Outlook for October 7, 2025
Diverging dynamics among currencies, both new (crypto) and old, could be influential in equity market performance in the short-term.
*** Stocks highlighted are for information purposes only and should not be considered as advice to purchase or to sell mentioned securities. As always, the use of technical and fundamental analysis is encouraged in order to fine tune entry and exit points to average seasonal trends.
Stocks Entering Period of Seasonal Strength Today:
Subscribers Click on the relevant link to view the full profile. Not a subscriber? Signup here.
SunCoke Energy Inc. (NYSE:SXC) Seasonal Chart
Ichor Holdings, Ltd. (NASD:ICHR) Seasonal Chart
iShares MSCI Emerging Markets ex China ETF (NASD:EMXC) Seasonal Chart
Safehold Inc. (NYSE:SAFE) Seasonal Chart
The Markets
Stocks closed higher on Monday as further optimism surrounding the Artificial Intelligence evolution pushed investors into Technology and Utility stocks. The S&P 500 Index closed up by just over a third of one percent, holding above support around the 20-day moving average (~6640), the variable hurdle that has kept the short-term trend off of the April lows intact. The weakest, most volatile, period for the equity market through the back half of September has come to an end, but evidence of a bottoming setup on the volatility index hints that we may not be in the clear toward broad risk exposure, yet. The average (seasonal) peak for the so-called “fear gauge” is the end of October. Despite the transition out of the weakest two-week stretch of the year for stocks, the strategy remains the same, which is to avoid being aggressive in risk (stocks) for now (over the next couple of weeks), but take advantage of any volatility shocks (should they materialize) to increase the risk profile of portfolios ahead of the best six months of the year for stocks that gets underway at the end of October. We have picked our spots in the market to which we want to be exposed, both through and beyond the period of seasonal volatility, in our list of candidates in the market that are worthy to Accumulate or Avoid and the performance continues to be exceptional. Those themes that are enduring according to our three-pronged approach incorporating seasonal, technical, and fundamental analysis keeps us focused and we are not concerned, at all, that the broad market weakness that is normal of this time of year has failed to materialize. We will continue to allow for the possibility of volatility to materialize in the month ahead and position the risk metrics of portfolios appropriately until a more ideal setup to reach out on the risk spectrum (eg. away from bonds/gold and towards our four desired sectors to be exposed) is revealed. The Seasonal Advantage Portfolio that we oversee at Castlemoore continues to chart all-time highs and has been realizing some of the best performance that it has seen in years.
Today, in our Market Outlook to subscribers, we discuss the following:
- The jump in the Tokyo Nikkei to our proposed target
- Our weekly chart books update, along with the list of all segments of the market to either Accumulate or Avoid
- Other Notes
Subscribers can look for this report in their inbox or by clicking on the following link and logging in: Market Outlook for October 7
Not signed up yet? Subscribe now to receive full access to all of the research and analysis that we publish
Want to know which areas of the market to buy or sell? Our Weekly Chart Books have just been updated, providing a clear Accumulate, Avoid, or Neutral rating for currencies, cryptocurrencies, commodities, broad markets, and subsectors/industries of the market. Subscribers can login and click on the relevant links to access.
- Currencies
- Cryptocurrencies
- Commodities
- Major Benchmarks
- Sub-sectors / Industries
- ETFs: Bonds | Commodities | Equity Markets | Industries | Sectors
Subscribe now.
Sentiment on Monday, according to the put-call ratio, ended bullish at 0.73.
Seasonal charts of companies reporting earnings today:
S&P 500 Index
TSE Composite
| Sponsored By... |
|
